On January 22, 2019, Ms. Pimchanok Wonkohporn, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy (OTPS), revealed that Thailand's exports in December 2018 amounted to $19.3814 billion, a decrease of 1.72%, marking a consecutive decline for the second month. Meanwhile, imports were valued at $18.3164 billion, down 8.15%, representing the first negative figure in 2018, but still resulting in a trade surplus of $1.0649 billion.

The total exports for the year 2018 reached $252.4864 billion, an increase of 6.7%, which fell short of the export growth target set at 8%. However, this performance is considered commendable given the current global economic conditions, which are affected by issues in trading partner economies and the trade war between the U.S. and China. Exports grew in nearly all markets, such as Japan (up 13%), the U.S. (up 5.4%), the European Union (15 countries, up 5%), ASEAN (9 countries, up 14.7%), CLMV (up 16.6%), China (up 2.3%), India (up 17.3%), Hong Kong (up 1.8%), South Korea (up 4.9%), Australia (up 2.9%), Africa (up 9.7%), Latin America (up 3.1%), the European Union (12 countries, up 7.1%), and Russia and CIS (up 10.1%). In contrast, exports to the Middle East decreased by 5%. Imports totaled $249.2319 billion, an increase of 12.51%, resulting in a trade surplus of $3.2545 billion.

Ms. Pimchanok stated that the reason for the negative export figures in December was due to a 6.6% decline in agricultural and agro-industrial exports. Products that saw a decrease included rice (down 5.5%), rubber (down 32.3%), cassava (down 22.8%), food (down 3.3%), frozen and processed shrimp (down 13.2%), and industrial products, which also turned negative at 0.8%. Notable declines included passenger cars (down 0.9%), motorcycle parts (down 4.4%), electronics (down 13.5%), and electrical appliances (down 1.7%).

Additionally, the trade war impacted exports, resulting in a loss of $239.8 million. This included direct impacts from U.S. tariffs, which caused a 48.5% decrease in exports valued at $47.3 million, with significant losses in solar cells (down 88.2%), washing machines (down 28.8%), and steel (down 43.8%). However, aluminum exports increased by 156%. The impact of being part of the supply chain for China, along with U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, resulted in exports valued at $2.280 billion, down 8.3%, leading to a loss of $207.3 million, including vehicles and parts (down 48.9%) and household and office goods (down 27.4%). In contrast, exports of processed foods and beverages increased by 82.3%, and chemicals and plastics rose by 13.3%. Thai products exported to the U.S. replaced Chinese goods affected by tariffs, with exports to the U.S. valued at $1.689 billion, up 0.7%, or an increase of $12 million, including steel (up 63.6%) and chemicals and plastics (up 29.1%).

For the entire year of 2018, the trade war resulted in a total loss of $382.1 million, with direct impacts from U.S. measures causing a 41.6% decrease, amounting to a loss of $421.5 million in export value. The impact from the Chinese supply chain resulted in a 5.8% decrease, leading to a loss of $438.6 million in export value. Conversely, the positive impact from replacing Chinese goods in U.S. markets increased by 9.6%, adding $478 million in value.

Ms. Pimchanok mentioned that for 2019, the Ministry of Commerce has set an export growth target of 8%, requiring an average monthly export of at least $23 billion. This presents a challenging task, especially concerning the ongoing trade war, which needs to be monitored to see if the U.S. and China can resolve their issues. Recently, China announced plans to increase imports from the U.S. over the next six years during the 90-day ceasefire negotiations, but it remains to be seen how the U.S. will respond. If an agreement is reached, it could help revive global trade and positively impact Thai exports from the second quarter onward. However, if no resolution is found, it will continue to affect global trade, and attention must be paid to the slowing economies of trading partners, low agricultural prices, and the strengthening baht, all of which impact Thai exports.

Therefore, the Ministry of Commerce must expedite the search for new export markets to diversify risks, particularly for products where Thailand is part of China's production chain, including electronics and electrical circuit boards. It must also attract investment in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), especially in technology and innovation-driven industries to enhance export value. Additionally, efforts must be made to expedite negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and free trade agreements (FTAs) with new partners to reduce tariffs and create competitive advantages for exports.

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