Dr. Chaiyan Jaroensuk, President of the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) stated that the TNSC has revised its export growth forecast for 2025 to 5%. Overall, Thailand's international trade from January to November 2025 compared to the same period last year (YoY) shows that Thailand's total exports amounted to $275,763.6 million, growing by 5.1%, with a value in Thai baht of 9,695,455 million baht, expanding by 7.3% (excluding gold, oil, and military equipment, exports from January to November grew by 4.9%). Meanwhile, imports were valued at $282,033.3 million, growing by 5.7%, with a value in Thai baht of 10,032,550 million baht, expanding by 7.8%, resulting in a trade deficit for Thailand from January to November 2025 of $6,269.8 million, or a deficit of 337,096 million baht.

For 2026 (as of January 2026), Thai exports are projected to grow by 1-3% due to significant ongoing risks, particularly the Trade War (Trump 2.0), which may create uncertainties in trade policies that could have both positive and negative effects on the global economy and Thailand's economy. Meanwhile, U.S. economic stimulus measures attracting investors back to the country and corporate tax cuts may lead to a robust U.S. economy, affecting inflation and prompting the Federal Reserve to revise its forecast for interest rate cuts from four times to two times next year, along with a potential easing or elimination of strict environmental regulations.

Regarding geopolitical issues, claims of rights over waters leading to military confrontations in the South China Sea, along with the ongoing war in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, remain concerns. Additionally, the Thai baht continues to fluctuate due to internal factors, including inflation and U.S. trade policies.

Moreover, exporters are facing increased costs due to rising labor wages, which impact production and transportation costs. The direction of global oil prices and energy costs is volatile due to various risks, and the shipping situation has seen freight rates rise due to increased exports to the U.S. and ongoing issues in the Red Sea affecting exports to the European Union and the Middle East.

Nevertheless, the Thai National Shippers' Council has made important recommendations for collaborative efforts, including pushing for quarterly meetings of the Joint Public-Private Sector Committee at the Ministry of Commerce (Commerce Committee) to monitor the volatility of international trade, as well as increasing the budget for international trade activities both in key partner countries and emerging markets to diversify trade risks and address market distortions from U.S. trade measures, aiming for an export growth target of 2-3% in 2026.