Kasikorn Research Center has revised its forecast for the growth of Thailand's economy in 2024 to 2.8% down from 3.1%, which was estimated in December 2023, due to the recovery of exports and the expected return of over 36 million tourists to Thailand.

Mr. Burin Adulwattana, Managing Director and Chief Economist of Kasikorn Research Center stated that the global economy in 2024 is expected to grow at a similar rate to 2023. Global trade is likely to recover well, and global interest rates are expected to gradually decrease as inflation moves towards the targets set by central banks worldwide. China continues to face unresolved real estate issues and a weak economy, leading to reduced domestic demand and ongoing price cuts by Chinese manufacturers to maintain market share. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve assesses that the economy is still growing well and has signaled a potential reduction in policy interest rates this year, with the financial market anticipating a rate cut starting in June 2024.

Overall, Thailand's economy in 2024 is expected to grow below expectations. The Kasikorn Research Center has lowered its growth forecast for Thailand's economy in 2024 to 2.8% from 3.1% due to weakening domestic demand momentum, a continuous contraction in the manufacturing sector, and high household debt, as reflected in the declining domestic car sales over several consecutive months.

In 2024, Thailand's economy will be supported by the resumption of government budget disbursement and an expected 2% growth in exports, along with the potential for foreign tourist arrivals to reach 36 million this year. The Kasikorn Research Center anticipates that the Bank of Thailand has ended its interest rate hike cycle at 2.5% and is likely to reduce rates about twice in 2024, with the inflation rate forecasted at 0.8% for the year.

In the context of global trade facing intensified trade barriers, the trend of carbon tax collection worldwide, and the impact of technologies like AI, Thailand is grappling with various structural issues and must accelerate the search for new machinery to drive its economy. The Kasikorn Research Center believes that in driving initiatives such as becoming a hub for EV production, a center for data centers, or attracting foreign investment in other forms, a key factor is that Thailand must have sufficient clean energy at reasonable prices to attract economic activities in the Green Economy sector to transform the structure of Thailand's economy.