The improving export outlook and potential additional government measures are expected to support Thailand's economy this year. Exports are projected to grow by 9%, but attention must be paid to the third wave of COVID-19, which remains uncertain and may last longer and be more severe than previously estimated. <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

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Krungsri Research<\/span> anticipates that the positive export trend and possible additional government measures will bolster Thailand's economy this year. The export value in April stood at $21.43 billion, marking a 13.1% year-on-year increase from the previous month, which was 8.5%. Excluding gold, the export value this month continued to grow for the fifth consecutive month at +28.9%, the highest growth in three years. The average growth for the entire year is expected to be around 9%.

Most key export products have shown strong growth<\/span>, such as:

Chemicals (+65.7%)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Rubber products (+55.5%)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Vehicles and equipment (+52.6%)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Electrical appliances (+45.2%)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Plastic products (+33.3%)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Electronics (+21.7%)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

However, some exports are still contracting due to specific factors, such as rice, which faces high competition, and sugar, which has been affected by drought leading to reduced yields. In terms of export markets, major markets like the U.S., Europe, and CLMV have shown improvement, while Japan and China continue to expand. Meanwhile, ASEAN-5 continues to contract due to the downturn in the Singapore and Indonesia markets.

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Thailand's exports continue to show growth momentum, even during the long Songkran holiday. Krungsri Research predicts that in Q2/64, exports will still grow in double digits, driven by a low base from the previous year, along with support from the recovery of the global economy and trade.<\/strong><\/span>

For the second half of 64, it is expected that after the low base effect wears off, Thailand's exports will return to single-digit growth but will still benefit from improved economic activities as the country reopens and the progress of vaccination efforts, which will aid in the global economic recovery.

Recently, UNCTAD projected that global trade will grow by 19% this year due to these positive factors, while Krungsri Research estimates that Thailand's exports in 64 will expand by 9%<\/strong><\/span>, up from the previous estimate of 6% in April, marking a significant driver of the economy this year.

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            Despite the positive factors from additional government measures, which the Ministry of Finance has indicated may involve borrowing 500 billion baht under a new decree this year, initially around 100 billion baht, combined with relief measures that the government will begin implementing in July, amounting to approximately 140 billion baht through programs to assist low-income individuals and stimulate purchasing power among middle and high-income earners, it is expected that over 200 billion baht will help support the economy in the second half of the year amidst the increasing likelihood of successful vaccination efforts.

However, the uncertainty surrounding the third wave of COVID-19, which may last longer and be more severe than previously estimated, leads Krungsri Research to maintain its GDP forecast for this year at 2.0%, and the situation will need to be monitored closely.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

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