From January 1-14, 2024, Chinese tourists visiting Thailand ranked first with 186,424 people. This is attributed to (1) seasonal factors as Chinese travelers often travel during the end of the year leading up to the Chinese New Year, which falls on February 10 this year, (2) the positive impact of the visa-free measures from September 25, 2023, to February 29, 2024, which have made travel more convenient.

Looking ahead, whether the number of Chinese tourists will continue to rank first depends on three key issues: (1) the increase in the number of Chinese tourists before and after the Chinese New Year compared to the first half of January, (2) whether a conclusion regarding permanent visa measures from both governments will be reached after the temporary visa-free measures end in late February, and (3) the atmosphere and experiences of Chinese tourists in Thailand. If all parties can maintain and effectively stimulate targeted marketing, it should positively impact the momentum of Chinese tourists returning.

For the entire year of 2024, the Kasikorn Research Center predicts that Chinese tourists visiting Thailand could end the year ranked first with approximately 5.2 million people (forecasted as of December 12, 2023), an increase from 3.5 million in 2023. This is due to the potential for a continued recovery in Chinese tourism to Thailand, compared to pre-COVID levels of around 11 million. However, the return of Chinese tourists will take time due to ongoing economic challenges in China that may affect international travel demand, especially for those with vulnerable income and savings. This is reflected in the fact that the number of Chinese tourists traveling in Asia has not yet returned to pre-COVID levels. Moving forward, competition with other destinations also trying to attract Chinese tourists will impact the recovery trajectory of Chinese tourism to Thailand.