The Fiscal Policy Office estimates that Thailand's economy will grow by 3.8% in 2023, driven by the continuous recovery of the tourism sector and easing inflation. However, it is essential to closely monitor the growth trends of key trading partner economies.

Mr. Pornchai Teeravech, Director of the Fiscal Policy Office and spokesperson for the Ministry of Finance, stated that in 2023, it is expected that the Thai economy will expand by 3.8% due to support from the recovery of the tourism sector and ongoing domestic demand, particularly from an increasing number of tourists from the Asia region. It is anticipated that in 2023, there will be 27.5 million foreign tourists visiting Thailand, representing a growth of 147% year-on-year, which will lead to increased revenue from tourism and related services. Meanwhile, the volume of goods exports is expected to slow down due to decreased demand from key trading partners, with exports in US dollar terms projected to grow by 0.4% (forecast range of -0.1% to 0.9%).

As for private consumption, it is expected to grow by 3.5% (forecast range of 3.0% to 4.0%) in line with rising household incomes. Private investment is projected to grow by 3.6% (forecast range of 3.1% to 4.1%) due to improving domestic economic confidence.

The general inflation rate is expected to be at 2.8% (forecast range of 2.3% to 3.3%), aligning with the inflation target range of 1.0% – 3.0% due to declining global energy prices. Regarding external stability, it is anticipated that the current account balance will return to a surplus of 3.1 billion US dollars, or 0.5% of GDP (forecast range of 0.0% to 1.0% of GDP).

However, it is crucial to monitor risk factors impacting the Thai economy, particularly the slowing global economic outlook and volatility in global financial markets due to the tight monetary policies of key trading partners, especially the United States and the European Union, as well as geopolitical risks in various regions that may affect international stability and production factors, along with the recovery of the Chinese economy amid the COVID-19 pandemic.