Kasikorn Research Center predicts that although a survey of consumer behavior regarding the use of E-commerce platforms shows that the proportion of purchases in various product categories through online platforms in 2022 is expected to increase compared to overall spending on each type of product, inflation and rising living costs, along with uncertainties from COVID-19 and the ongoing unrest in Ukraine, are likely to lead consumers to continue spending cautiously.

Additionally, consumers have adjusted their behavior by planning to reduce spending through physical stores and increasing their online spending within a limited overall budget that has not increased. This is particularly true for food and personal care items, which consumers traditionally purchased through physical channels such as hypermarkets, supermarkets, and convenience stores. However, due to changing consumer behavior and retailers adapting through Omni-channel strategies (Offline to Online), consumers are increasingly turning to online platforms for their purchases. This is reflected in the sales figures of some retailers, where online sales grew 2-3 times last year, but overall sales did not increase significantly or grew within a limited range (primarily due to pricing). This aligns with consumer survey results indicating that this year, spending on online purchases is expected to increase by more than 35%, while budgets remain the same or are spent cautiously.

As a result, Kasikorn Research Center estimates that the B2C E-commerce market for products in 2022 will be valued at approximately 565 billion baht, growing by 13.5% (YoY), which is the lowest growth rate compared to the previous three years (2019-2021), where the average annual growth was 40%. Part of the growth in B2C E-commerce is attributed to the affordability of products, which creates a sense of value, especially due to promotions from online platform operators that have increased in frequency. Additionally, consumers have become more comfortable and familiar with online shopping over the past 1-2 years due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Furthermore, it is expected that the market share of B2C E-commerce will increase from 14% in 2021 to 16% in 2022 compared to the total retail market value, particularly in the food, beverage, and personal care categories. Although the online proportion remains very small, due to the necessity of these product categories, it is anticipated that consumers will continue to increase spending through these channels more than in fashion, furniture, and electrical appliances, where growth may not be as rapid due to consumer purchasing power remaining cautious.

In addition to the aforementioned environmental factors that pressure consumer purchasing power and spending, there are several challenges that businesses must face and plan for, including:

 - Intensifying competition in the business sector due to an increasing number of players entering the online market, while the potential consumer base is not growing rapidly and remains limited. This means that conducting business through online channels in the future may not be as easy as in the past, especially for SMEs or small businesses. If products and services do not differentiate or adapt quickly to consumer demands, they will face fierce and challenging competition. Meanwhile, operators on E-marketplace platforms, although they see annual revenue increases, spend significantly on promotions to stimulate the market, resulting in profits not recovering clearly. In 2021, profits are expected to show a slight positive recovery of around 2-3% after continuous losses averaging 30-40% per year. Even the online modern trade retail sector, which seems to have an advantage as consumers increasingly purchase food and personal care items, still faces intensified competition, especially from manufacturers or distributors who are also entering online channels.

 - Rising oil prices that may remain high for most of this year if the impact of unrest in Ukraine persists. This not only affects shipping costs but also household living costs and other business expenses, subsequently impacting overall consumer purchasing power and online purchasing decisions. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic may encourage consumers to continue choosing to shop online, but if the outbreak worsens and affects supply chains, such as delivery businesses or last-mile delivery, leading to temporary disruptions or longer delivery times, it will inevitably impact each E-commerce operator, especially in the food and beverage sectors.

 - Consumers remain concerned about product quality and service. Surveys show that over 56% of respondents are still unsure about product quality and the reliability of stores, and over 41% want improvements in the service provided by sales and delivery staff. If E-commerce businesses can adapt and address concerns or issues in various parts of the supply chain, it should lead to an increase in the value of products on online platforms, particularly by building confidence in product quality and standards, as well as maintaining consistent service quality from sales staff to impress consumers amid fierce competition.

Moreover, the trend of Thailand's population decline in the next decade will affect consumption or spending in the retail sector, which may change or grow limited, likely intensifying competition in the retail business overall. It is also believed that COVID-19 will transition from a pandemic to an endemic disease, which will ultimately require consumers to adapt to living with it. While the return of foreign tourists is expected to increase after the country reopens, it may still take time to return to normalcy. Therefore, in addition to the domestic market, capable E-commerce operators may look for new markets and expand online marketing channels to cross-border E-commerce, which could be another avenue to reach international customers more effectively. Certain Thai products remain popular among foreigners and have opportunities for expansion in foreign markets, such as dried foods, beverages, Thai herbal cosmetics, health supplements, and handicrafts. However, they must study consumer behavior and the various regulations and conditions for conducting cross-border E-commerce in each country clearly.