Lumpini Wisdom indicates that the number of new project launches in the Bangkok and surrounding areas in 2021 decreased by 20% due to the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), causing real estate developers to delay their plans for new project launches. Meanwhile, the trend for new project launches in 2022 in the Bangkok and surrounding areas is expected to grow by 5-20%, depending on the ability to control the COVID-19 Omicron variant outbreak and the government's economic recovery measures.

Mr. Prabhan Sak Raksaiwan, Managing Director of Lumpini Wisdom and Solutions Co., Ltd. (Lumpini Wisdom), a research and development company in the real estate sector under LP.N. Development Public Company Limited, summarized the survey results of new project launches in the Bangkok and surrounding areas for 2021, stating that there were a total of 55,863 new project launches, a 20% decrease. The value of new project launches amounted to 265,558 million baht, down 4% compared to 2020, marking a continuous decline for the third consecutive year since 2019 due to the COVID-19 outbreak, which has slowed down the economy and purchasing power.

The new project launches in 2021 included 34,921 single-family homes, accounting for 62.5% of the total new units launched, a decrease of 20.63% compared to 2020. The value of new single-family home projects was 172,825 million baht, representing a 15.93% decrease compared to 2020. The average selling price of single-family homes in 2021 was 4.94 million baht per unit, an increase of 5.78% compared to the average selling price of 4.67 million baht per unit in 2020, due to rising land and construction material prices in 2021.

In 2021, there were 20,942 new condominium projects launched, representing 37.5% of the total, also a 20% decrease compared to 2020. The value of new condominium launches was 92,732 million baht, which increased by 31% compared to the value of launches in 2020, with an average selling price of 4.42 million baht per unit, a 63% increase compared to the average price of 2.71 million baht in 2020. The average selling price per unit of condominiums in 2021 rose due to the launch of premium projects by some real estate companies, leading to a higher average price per unit in 2021 compared to 2020.

The COVID-19 outbreak in 2021 affected buyer confidence in the housing market, resulting in an average sales rate of new project launches at 17% from the total units available for sale, down from the average sales rate of 18% for new project launches in 2020.

“The COVID-19 outbreak in 2021 directly impacted future income confidence and purchasing decisions of homebuyers, causing real estate developers to delay and postpone their plans for new project launches during the first nine months of 2021 before gradually launching new projects in the last quarter of 2021, leading to a decrease in both the number and value of new project launches in 2021 compared to 2019-2020,” said Mr. Prabhan.

Real Estate Market Expected to Grow 5-20% in 2022

Looking ahead to the real estate market in 2022, the research team at Lumpini Wisdom has revised its forecast from the previous estimate of 15-20% growth made at the end of 2021 to a growth rate of 5-20%. This adjustment is due to the outbreak of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 in late 2021 continuing into early 2022, affecting trade, investment, and global supply chains, as well as the Thai economy, particularly the tourism and export sectors, which are crucial for driving the economy and domestic purchasing power.

Lumpini Wisdom assesses the overall real estate market in 2022 into three scenarios based on economic forecasts from the World Bank, the Bank of Thailand, and the National Economic and Social Development Council, as well as the ability to control the COVID-19 outbreak according to the Ministry of Public Health's guidelines.


- Base Case is the scenario where the COVID-19 outbreak is controlled within the first quarter of 2022, with exports growing by 5-8%, at least 5 million foreign tourists, global economic growth at 3.6% according to the World Bank's forecast, and Thai economic growth at 3.6-4% according to the Bank of Thailand and the National Economic and Social Development Council. The real estate market in Bangkok and surrounding areas is expected to grow at a rate of 10-20%, with new project launches estimated at 78,000-84,000 units, valued at 292,000-318,000 million baht.
- Worse Case is the scenario where the COVID-19 outbreak is controlled in the first half of 2022, which will impact Thai economic growth at a rate lower than 3% per year, with exports growing below 5%, fewer than 5 million tourists, and global economic growth below 3.6%. The real estate market is expected to grow at 5-10%, with developers likely to delay new project launches from the first half of the year to the second half, resulting in new project launches of 66,000-78,000 units, valued at approximately 278,000-292,000 million baht.
- Worst Case is the scenario where the COVID-19 outbreak is controlled in the last quarter of 2022, which will directly impact the global economy, the export sector, and tourism, leading to Thai economic growth of less than 2% in 2022, resulting in a growth rate of 3-5% for the real estate sector, with an estimated 60,000-66,000 new project launches valued at approximately 273,000-278,000 million baht.

“The real estate market in 2022 will not only face risks from the rapid spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 following the New Year celebrations but will also contend with high household debt reaching 90% of GDP and cautious lending practices for housing loans by financial institutions. This will require real estate developers to adapt and strategize to stimulate purchasing power and continuously increase sales, presenting a good opportunity for buyers to purchase housing at reasonable prices,” Mr. Prabhan concluded.