Progress in the distribution of “vaccines” and ongoing economic stimulus measures from the government are expected to positively impact the global economic outlook, which will enhance Thailand's export picture. This includes marketing plans to boost Thailand's tourism sector through various campaigns and activities. Although the number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand remains low, there is still a reliance on domestic tourists. These are all good signs and represent hope for revitalizing Thailand's economy to grow this year.

 

“Vaccines” Build Confidence, “Kasikorn Research Center” Maintains Thai GDP Forecast at 2.6%

            The growth forecast for Thailand's economy in 2021 is set at 2.6%, adjusted from the previous range of 0.0-4.5% to 0.8%-3.0%. This reflects a reduced downside risk to the economy in line with the progress of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. The adjustment of the upper limit indicates that the overall recovery of Thailand's economy will take longer and be slower than the global economy due to its high dependence on foreign tourist income, which fluctuates based on the advancement of vaccine distribution and Thailand's acceptance of tourists.

            The vaccination rate in 10 key markets by September is estimated to allow around 1.9 million foreign tourists from these markets, including China, Western Europe, the U.S., Russia, and some ASEAN countries, to visit Thailand. When combined with the first nine months of the year, the total number of tourists may reach 2 million this year if vaccine passports can be implemented or if international travel restrictions are eased.

            Therefore, to build confidence among tourists traveling to Thailand, stakeholders in the tourism sector must be vaccinated. It is estimated that at least 220,000 doses of vaccine will be needed before October for the workforce in the hotel business across 20 provinces that rely on foreign tourists.

 

 

The Tourism Business Proposes to Expedite the Lifting of “Quarantine”

            Tourism business operators are urging the government to expedite solutions to lift “quarantine measures or reduce quarantine days.” They have scheduled a meeting with five key agencies: the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, the Ministry of Public Health, the Ministry of Interior, the Immigration Bureau, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on March 16 to discuss the feasibility of using an application to link information technology systems for foreigners entering Thailand, including official document data, as well as tracking and reporting vaccination data and confirming that foreign tourists are free from COVID-19.

Positive Signals to Reduce Quarantine Duration Boost Thai Tourism Business, Expecting Tourists to Exceed 8 Million

            Mr. Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn, Minister of Tourism and Sports stated that the Ministry of Tourism has promoted the area quarantine measure as a form of quarantine in hotels during the first three days. If the COVID-19 test result is negative, tourists will be allowed to travel within the hotel or resort area for the remainder of the 14-day quarantine. After 14 days, if no infection is detected, they can travel to various destinations.

           “This measure is applied in five main tourist provinces: Phuket, Krabi, Koh Samui in Surat Thani, Pattaya in Chonburi, and Chiang Mai, where the government has begun the first phase of vaccination. It is expected to be finalized by March and implemented in April.”

            The National Communicable Disease Committee's third meeting of 2021 has approved the reduction of quarantine days for those traveling from abroad, considering that over 250 million people worldwide have been vaccinated. Foreigners and Thais returning from abroad with vaccination certificates at least 14 days but not more than 3 months prior to travel, along with a certificate confirming they are COVID-free within 72 hours, will have their quarantine reduced to 7 days. Foreigners without vaccination certificates will have their quarantine reduced to 10 days with only a certificate confirming they are virus-free within 72 hours.

 

“Traveling Without Quarantine” A Hope to Revive Thai Tourism Business, Generating 500 Billion Baht

           Mr. Vichit Prakobgosol, President of the Thai Tourism Business Association (ATTA) stated that the association will send a letter to the Prime Minister's Office, the Ministry of Tourism, Public Health, the Tourism Authority of Thailand, and the CCSA to consider opening up to foreign tourists without quarantine this week, along with information on the necessity for the country to welcome foreign tourists without quarantine.

            They propose that the government gradually lift quarantine measures for low-risk markets starting in June as a trial opening, with a continuous increase in subsequent months and full implementation in October. The private sector requests the government to announce a clear timeline to allow the private sector to prepare supply appropriately.

If the government begins to gradually lift quarantine measures for foreign tourists starting in June, it is expected that around 8 million foreign tourists will visit this year, generating approximately 500 billion baht in revenue.

“The sooner the announcement, the more advantageous it will be for Thailand, encouraging foreigners to return sooner. If the government announces the lifting of quarantine in July, it is expected that the number of foreign tourists this year will be around 6 million, and if announced in October, the number of foreign tourists this year may not reach 3 million.”