The TMB Economic Analysis Center, or TMB Analytics, predicts that the "Thai Travel Thai" initiative is likely to improve in the second half of the year following the easing of lockdown measures in the country and the introduction of government tourism stimulus packages. This is in contrast to "Thai Travel Abroad," which still faces risks from the COVID-19 outbreak. They suggest that if Thais who usually travel abroad are encouraged to travel domestically instead, it could help compensate for 79% of the revenue lost from foreign tourists.

 

        According to Thailand's tourism structure in 2019, the revenue from “foreign tourists in Thailand” was 1.93 trillion baht (64%) and “Thai travel within Thailand” was 1.08 trillion baht (36%). At the same time, there is a group of “Thais traveling abroad” who spent 440 billion baht. If we combine the spending of Thais on travel, it amounts to 1.52 trillion baht.

       TMB Analytics views this as a significant amount that could compensate for 79% of the revenue lost from foreign tourism, as the COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted foreign tourist revenue, which shrank by over 65% in the first half of 2020 due to lockdown measures.

       However, there are signs from both abroad and Thailand that lockdowns may be eased in the form of Travel Bubbles around the fourth quarter, leading to an expectation that the total number of foreign tourists for the year 2020 will be 9.3 million, with revenue dropping to 430 billion baht, a decrease of 77.8%.

 

 

       As for revenue from Thai travel within Thailand, it has also been heavily impacted but shows signs of recovery in the second half of the year. This is supported by the unlocking of tourism-related businesses in June, the lifting of curfews, and government measures to stimulate domestic tourism through three travel packages: “Encouragement - Let's Travel Together - Travel Share Happiness” with a budget of 22 billion baht.

       The government will support part of the expenses for accommodation and travel during tourism, training, and seminars from July to October this year, which is expected to stimulate additional tourism spending of 64 billion baht. Currently, the COVID situation in Thailand has improved significantly, allowing for a move into phase 4 of the lockdown easing, which will help create a favorable atmosphere for domestic tourism to recover more quickly. Additionally, data from Google Trends indicates that Thais are ready to travel, reflected in the increased searches for “travel” and “book accommodation” since early June. With various supporting factors, it is expected to help stabilize domestic tourism revenue, which is estimated to be 570 billion baht for the year, a decrease of 46.8% from the previous year.

 

  The outflow of 440 billion baht from the “Thais traveling abroad” group of 10 million people

       Statistics show that around 10 million Thais travel abroad each year, with total travel expenses amounting to 440 billion baht, or an average of 32,000 baht per person per trip. The top five destinations are ASEAN countries, Europe, Japan, China, and South Korea. However, due to the ongoing COVID situation abroad, these countries may not be ready to fully welcome foreign tourists, causing this high-spending market segment to delay international travel.

       This leads to an expectation that spending by Thais traveling abroad in 2020 will drop to 100 billion baht from the usual average of 400 billion baht per year, which presents an opportunity to attract 300 billion baht into domestic tourism.

       TMB Analytics recommends that operators adjust their strategies to target the “Thais traveling abroad” market to expand the “Thai Travel Thai” market during COVID, focusing on catering to the high-spending market segment, which still has around 300 billion baht ready to spend. This could help bring revenue back to the domestic tourism sector, potentially bringing it close to pre-COVID levels. If Thailand doesn't help Thailand, then who will help us?

 

Source: TMB Analytics