On July 5, 2019, Mr. Lawaron Saengsanit, Director of the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), revealed that after discussions with the Ministry of Commerce, there is still confidence that exports in the second half of this year will grow better than in the first half. The total exports for the year are not expected to be so poor as to show no growth or to decline, contrary to previous assessments by the Bank of Thailand (BOT) or commercial banks' economic research departments. The Ministry of Commerce still aims for a 3% growth in total export value for the year.

          "The Ministry of Commerce is confident that the export stimulation measures implemented and the improvement in trade war issues will positively impact Thailand's exports, leading to positive growth for the entire year," Mr. Lawaron stated.

          Regarding the issue of a strong Thai baht, it arises from several factors, one of which is that Thailand has had a continuous current account surplus for a long time, which the Bank of Thailand (BOT) is closely monitoring.

          Mr. Lawaron mentioned that the FPO has prepared economic stimulus measures for the new government to decide on which actions to take. The main framework of the economic stimulus measures must focus on private consumption, as it has a quick impact on economic growth. Given the current situation, relying on investment or export measures to quickly boost economic growth is challenging.

          "Consumption stimulation measures will help support the economy from contracting further. There will be financial and fiscal measures, which will be proposed to the Minister of Finance and the new government for consideration. The FPO has prepared comprehensive measures that are targeted and worthwhile for the funds used. If strong measures are needed, a larger budget will be required," Mr. Lawaron stated.

          Mr. Lawaron stated that the budget for fiscal year 2020, which will be delayed by three months from the original start date of October 1, 2019, to January 1, 2020, will not impact economic growth. This is because the regular budget can still be utilized according to the 2019 budget law.

          For the investment budget in the first quarter of 2020, there is an allocation of 83 billion baht, with 42 billion baht already committed and available for normal disbursement. There will be no interruptions, leaving 41 billion baht that still faces disbursement issues. However, the government has implemented other measures to compensate, including accelerating the disbursement of the regular budget for quicker spending in the first quarter, as well as expediting the disbursement of old investment budgets that are pending.

          Regarding the new conditions for registering for government welfare, it is currently under study, and it has not yet been concluded whether to continue individual registrations as before or to adopt a new family-based approach. This will need to be presented for government approval, and there are proposals to improve the welfare card measures.

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