On April 30, 2019, Mr. Chatchai Payuhanaveechai, Director of the Government Savings Bank, revealed the results of the Ground Economic Confidence Index (GSI) survey for the first quarter of 2019. The survey was conducted among a sample of 2,186 individuals nationwide with an income of no more than 15,000 baht. The GSI for the first quarter of 2019 stood at 46.1, an increase from 45.9 in the fourth quarter of 2018. This rise is attributed to increased confidence among the grassroots population due to salary increases for regular income earners at the beginning of the year and improvements in prices for certain agricultural products, such as jasmine rice and livestock products.

          The GSI for the next six months is projected to be at 51.5, up from 47.8 in the previous quarter, marking the first time it has exceeded 50 since 2017. This increase reflects the grassroots population's expectations for the economy following the elections, with hopes that the new government will instill confidence in investors and implement measures to support low-income earners. Additionally, the government continues to have programs in place to assist low-income individuals, such as increasing the credit limit for pico finance. Furthermore, the production and prices of certain agricultural products, such as jasmine rice and cassava, have improved, enhancing the income and purchasing power of these farmers.

          However, risks remain due to the uncertain political situation, which could impact the economy and investor confidence. The value of exports has slowed down in line with a decrease in global trade due to economic issues in partner countries and trade barriers between the U.S. and China. Additionally, the prices of agricultural products remain low, affecting the income and purchasing power of most farmers.

          When comparing the confidence index across various aspects to the previous quarter, it was found that the ability to repay debts, income generation, and job opportunities have increased, while spending, savings, and overall economic conditions have slightly decreased.

          “The research center believes that the grassroots population is cautious about spending due to the rising cost of living. The center predicts that in the next quarter, the Ground Economic Confidence Index will decline seasonally as people face increased expenses during the school opening period, and the agricultural sector is at the end of the harvest season with reduced key product availability in the market. Coupled with the ongoing political uncertainty, it is essential to establish a new government to build confidence and continuously address economic issues,” Mr. Chatchai stated.

 

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