On January 28, 2019, sources from the Ministry of Finance revealed that today (January 28, 2019), the Ministry will announce its projections for economic growth in 2018 and 2019. The economy for 2018 is expected to grow by 4.1%, down from the previously estimated 4.5%. Earlier, the Ministry aimed for a 4.2% growth rate for 2018, but the export value announced by the Ministry of Commerce grew by only 6.7%, lower than the expected 8%, prompting the Ministry of Finance to revise its economic forecast for 2018 downward.

 

          For 2019, economic growth is projected at 4%, with a forecast range of 3.5% to 4.5%, which is similar to the estimates from the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB). The driving forces behind the economy will continue to be public and private spending domestically, although there are risks from global economic fluctuations, leading to an expected export growth of only 4-5%. Additionally, there are risks from rising interest rates both domestically and internationally.

 

          "Although the World Bank sees the economy growing at 3.8% in 2019, the Ministry of Finance believes it can still achieve 4%, which is the full potential growth rate of 4-5%. This will instill confidence in investors. If Thailand's economy does not grow by at least 4% this year, it will lead to a slowdown in consumption and private investment," the source stated.

 

          Previously, Mr. Lawaron Saengsanit, Director of the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), stated that clarity regarding the elections would positively impact the economy. Meanwhile, Mr. Apisak Tantivorawong, the Minister of Finance, noted that the elections have caused uncertainty among investors, leading to delays in new project investments. The government is trying to accelerate public investment to compensate and prevent an economic slowdown.

 

          Furthermore, Mr. Apisak has repeatedly emphasized that the Thai economy is expected to grow by 4% this year, although it will be less than in 2018 due to the impacts of the trade war and the economic slowdown, which are increasingly affecting Thai exports. The Bank of Thailand's (BOT) policy interest rate hikes are also causing a slowdown in private consumption and investment.

 

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