The Real Estate Information Center (REIC) of the Government Housing Bank (GHB) has conducted an analysis titled "Thailand Overall Residential Market Index: Q2 2025". The index stands at 74.6 points, reflecting a decrease of -12.0% compared to the same period last year (YoY), indicating a slowdown in both demand and supply in the residential market. However, when compared to the previous quarter (QoQ), the index increased by 4.9% due to government economic stimulus measures, particularly the reduction of transfer and mortgage fees to 0.01% for residences priced below 7 million baht, and the temporary relaxation of LTV regulations by the Bank of Thailand, which covers housing loans across all price levels. These measures have supported a gradual recovery in the real estate sector this quarter, with details as follows:

The Thailand Overall Residential Market Index in Q2 2025 is at 74.6, down -12.0% YoY, reflecting declines in both demand and supply. In terms of demand, the number of residential property transfers in Bangkok and its vicinity decreased by -16.2%, but increased by 16.5% QoQ due to two key measures: the reduction of transfer and mortgage fees to 0.01% and the temporary relaxation of LTV regulations from the Bank of Thailand, which covers housing loans at all price levels. In terms of supply, the number of completed and registered condominium units in Bangkok and its vicinity decreased by -42.9%, and the confidence index for operators dropped by -12.9 points compared to the same period last year (YoY) (details in Table 1 and Charts 1 and 2).

The Overall Residential Market Index for 2025 is forecasted under three scenarios. In the base case, the index is expected to be at 79.0 points, a decrease of -3.3% from 2024. This slight decline reflects a market still facing some pressure but supported by government economic stimulus measures, including the reduction of transfer and mortgage fees, temporary relaxation of LTV regulations, a downward trend in interest rates, and low-interest loan policies from the government, which will enhance access to housing loans for the public. However, if these positive factors have a maximum impact, the economy recovers quickly, consumer purchasing power improves, and tourism continues to expand, the index could rise to 86.9 points, representing a growth of 6.4%, which is the best-case scenario. Conversely, if the economy slows significantly due to external impacts, such as U.S. tax measures affecting the income of SMEs, employees, and freelancers, along with a slowdown in real estate investment due to unsold inventory issues, stricter lending by financial institutions, and increased liquidity risks for medium and small enterprises due to postponed bond repayments and fundraising limitations, as well as a slowdown in tourism, the index could drop to just 71.2 points, or a decline of -12.9%, representing the worst-case scenario for 2025 (details in Table 2 and Charts 3).

Data Collection Methodology

The Real Estate Information Center of the Government Housing Bank has developed the "Thailand Overall Residential Market Index" using a quantitative index method based on the geometric mean and employing multiple linear regression analysis for forecasting.

Data from both demand and supply sides in the Bangkok metropolitan area were used, consisting of the following variables:

  1. Six independent variables:
    1. Residential property transfer data, which is a demand-side variable.
    2. Absorption rate of housing estates, which is a demand-side variable.
    3. Absorption rate of condominiums, which is a demand-side variable.
    4. Data on completed and registered residential properties, which is a supply-side variable.
    5. Number of residential construction permits, which is a supply-side variable.
    6. Operator confidence index, which is a variable for both supply and demand.
  2. One dependent variable: the "Overall Residential Market Index" that has been developed.

The Overall Residential Market Index for Thailand is developed quarterly, starting from Q4 2021, using demand and supply data from 2009 to 2017 to develop the index, with 2012 as the base year.

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