The Kasikorn Research Center views that Thai exports in 2023 may contract by -1.3% YoY, an improvement from previous forecasts, while in 2024, a gradual growth of 2.0% YoY is anticipated.

In November 2023, Thai exports grew by 4.9% YoY, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, partly due to a low base from the previous year. Additionally, exports to the United States surged by 17.5% YoY, driven by significant growth in several key products. However, exports to China contracted for the first time in four months, as the season for previously strong fruit exports came to an end, and other key products, such as rubber and plastic pellets, continued to decline.

Looking ahead to 2024, the Kasikorn Research Center believes that exports will gradually recover from the previous year, in line with the expected recovery of global trade in 2024, driven by the cyclical demand for various goods and a low base from the previous year. However, there are several challenges that may pressure the recovery of Thai exports in the near future, including the economic slowdown in major trading partners, particularly China and the United States, geopolitical issues, currency volatility due to shifts in the monetary policies of major central banks, and ongoing drought conditions that need to be monitored.

In summary, the Kasikorn Research Center expects that the overall picture of Thai exports in 2024 will return to positive growth at 2.0%, an increase from the anticipated contraction of -1.3% in 2023, which has been revised down from an earlier forecast of -2.5% YoY.

Read the full analysis at https://www.kasikornresearch.com/th/analysis/k-social-media/Pages/Export-ebr4029-FB-2023-12-26.aspx