Bangkok - Golbalek Securities (GBS) assesses that the Thai stock market will continue to fluctuate sideways this week. Investors should keep an eye on the Fed's expected interest rate hike of 0.25% during the meeting in May. JP Morgan Chase & Co. warns to prepare for a prolonged period of rising interest rates beyond market expectations, and the reporting of bank sector earnings is expected to show an increase compared to both YoY and QoQ. Therefore, the index range is set at 1,580-1,620 points, with investment recommendations in stocks suggested by the IAA including ADVANC, AOT, BBL, COM7, and CPALL.

Ms. Wilasini Boonmasungsong, Director of Research at Golbalek Securities (GBS), evaluates the direction of the Thai stock market this week as still fluctuating sideways. The financial market anticipates that the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.25% in the May meeting. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase & Co., warns that investors and businesses should prepare for the impact of a prolonged period of rising interest rates, which is likely to last longer than the market expects. Several U.S. economic indicators have come in below expectations, such as a 0.5% MoM decline in industrial production in March, which was expected to decrease by only 0.1% MoM, a 1% YoY drop in March retail sales against a forecast of a 0.4% YoY decline, and an increase in unemployment claims beyond expectations. The PPI index for March showed a -0.5% MoM change, contrary to the expected +0.1% MoM.

On the domestic front, investors are still monitoring the earnings announcements of banks, which are gradually being released. It is expected that the earnings trend for the banking sector will increase YoY and QoQ, similar to large U.S. banks that have reported better-than-expected earnings due to increased interest income from rising rates. The banking sector will announce financial statements between April 18-21, setting the index movement range for this week at 1,580-1,620 points.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks remain high, including tensions between China-Taiwan, North Korea-South Korea, and China-U.S. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen stated that China's military drills undermine stability in Taiwan and the region, describing them as irresponsible. The U.S. has sent warships through the Taiwan Strait following China's military exercises, while South Korean forces fired warning shots at North Korean vessels encroaching on their waters during North Korea's missile tests. Additionally, the G7 foreign ministers' meeting will focus on the Russia-Ukraine war.

The Department of Disease Control is closely monitoring the COVID-19 situation, predicting an increase in cases after the Songkran festival, potentially surpassing the numbers seen during the New Year due to increased public activities and travel during the holiday.

Moreover, there are several domestic factors to watch, such as the banking sector's financial statements for Q1 2023 from April 18-21, the Industrial Index announcement by the Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) in the 5th week, the Bank of Thailand's economic report on April 28, and the Ministry of Commerce's announcement on the "Trade Economic Index" on May 3, along with events leading up to the election on May 14. Internationally, today (April 18), China will report its Q1 2023 GDP, the U.S. will report housing starts and building permits for March, and on April 19, the EU will report March inflation rates while the U.S. will report weekly oil stock data. On April 20, the U.S. will report weekly unemployment claims, April manufacturing index, and March leading economic index from the Conference Board. Finally, on April 21, the U.S. will report the preliminary April services PMI and the preliminary April services PMI.

Therefore, it is recommended to invest in stocks suggested by the Investment Analysts Association (IAA), including ADVANC, AOT, BBL, COM7, and CPALL.

Regarding the direction of gold investment, Mr. Natthawut Wongyowarak, Director of Research at Golbalek Securities, assesses that the overall gold price this week should be monitored closely for the U.S. manufacturing and services purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. If these figures continue to weaken, it will support safe-haven assets like gold. Meanwhile, SPDR has begun to reduce its risk exposure after selling off gold.

Thus, the research department estimates that gold prices may fluctuate within the range of $1,975-$2,030/oz, with support from economic figures that are lower than expected. It is recommended to trade within the provided range.