Dr. Yanyong Thaicharoen, Deputy Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Economic Intelligence Center, Siam Commercial Bank Public Company Limited (SCB), revealed that EIC estimates the global economy in 2020 will enter a recession with a projected contraction of -2.1%. This is influenced by a more severe than expected change in three main factors: the intensified global spread of the COVID-19 virus, strict control measures implemented by many countries, and preliminary data from major economies indicating a greater contraction in economic activities than anticipated.

Regarding the Thai economy, EIC has revised its forecast for Thailand's economy in 2020 to a contraction of -5.6%. Key factors include the global economy entering a recession, a larger than expected decline in tourist numbers, the impact on consumption due to city lockdown announcements, and the latest monetary and fiscal measures, including additional funding from the government's emergency loan decree, which is expected to inject around 200 billion baht into the economy.

Additionally, it is estimated that the recovery of foreign tourists will be slower than previously expected. Initially, it was anticipated that the number of tourists would recover to last year's levels by the end of this year. However, the latest assessment suggests that the number of tourists each month for the remainder of the year is likely to decline compared to last year due to the COVID-19 outbreak spreading to more major countries, along with the high contraction of the global economy, especially in the first half of the year, which is expected to directly affect the income of people in many countries worldwide.

Therefore, it is expected that even if tourists begin to recover in the second half of the year, they will not be able to return to the levels seen in the previous year. By the end of the year, the number of tourists arriving in Thailand is projected to be only half of last year's figures, with an estimated total of 13.1 million tourists this year. This is a result of the high uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 outbreak. However, if the situation improves, it is estimated that there could be 17.6 million tourists, while in a worst-case scenario, the number could drop to just 10.3 million.

Nonetheless, if the COVID-19 situation resolves sooner than expected, it is believed that Thailand's GDP could contract less, at -3.2%. However, if the outbreak worsens and prolongs beyond expectations, it could lead to a greater reduction in the number of tourists and Thailand's export sector, which would subsequently impact the domestic economy, affecting both consumption and private investment. This could result in a potential contraction of the Thai economy in 2020 of up to -7.2%.