The Real Estate Information Center of the Government Housing Bank (REIC) reveals that the overall housing market situation in the first quarter of 2022 continues to face challenges due to the slowing economy, persistent high inflation since the beginning of the year, and clearly rising interest rates, which affect the investment expansion decisions of operators. Consumers are delaying their purchasing plans despite still having a demand for housing.

Dr. Vichai Viratakphan, Inspector of the Government Housing Bank and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center stated that a survey of housing projects for sale in the first quarter of 2022 found a total of 200,278 units valued at 947,604 million baht. The number of units increased by 3,189 units, but the value decreased by 4,725 million baht compared to the second half of 2021, due to new units being offered at lower prices, particularly condominiums under BOI projects that have started to open for sale more.

In the first three months of 2022, new sales were nearly equal to the last six months of 2021, pushing the overall absorption rate up by 5%, with 30,098 new units sold valued at 135,939 million baht, which is higher in both number and value than the last half of 2021, which had 32,138 new units valued at 153,729 million baht.

Most of the new sales were from condominium projects priced below 1.5 million baht, with 19,055 new units sold valued at 66,179 million baht, and 11,043 units from housing projects valued at 69,760 million baht in the first quarter of 2022, reflecting that the demand for housing in Q1 2022 improved continuously from the end of 2021.

 

There are over 170,000 unsold units valued at over 810 billion baht, with expectations of a decrease in unsold units throughout the year.

However, caution is still needed in certain locations with unsold units. In the overall picture for Q1 2022, in the Bangkok metropolitan area, there were a total of 170,180 unsold units valued at 811,665 million baht, divided into 64,282 condominium units valued at 277,885 million baht and 105,898 housing project units valued at 533,779 million baht.

The areas with the highest number of unsold condominium units are Huai Khwang-Jatujak-Dindaeng with 9,751 units, followed by Phra Khanong-Bang Na-Suan Luang-Pravet with 7,669 units, and Thonburi-Klongsan-Bangkok Noi-Bangkok Yai-Bang Phlat with 5,677 units.

For housing projects, the zone with the highest unsold units is Lam Luk Ka-Klong Luang-Thanyaburi-Nong Suea with 19,894 units, followed by Bang Phli-Bang Bo-Bang Sao Thong with 14,643 units, and Bang Yai-Bang Bua Thong-Bang Krui-Sai Noi with 14,068 units.

Meanwhile, the absorption rate for all types in Q1 2022 is at 5% per month (up from 2.7 in the second half of 2021), with the highest absorption rate for condominiums at 7.6% per month (up from 3.3 in the second half of 2021), while the absorption rate for housing projects is at 3.1% per month (up from 2.4 in the second half of 2021).

 

Single-family homes still have the highest absorption rate among horizontal housing at 3.5% per month (up from 2.4 in the second half of 2021), while the lowest is for duplex homes at 2.7% per month (up from 2.3 in the second half of 2021).

For the price range of 1.01-1.5 million baht, the absorption rate is the highest at 13.6%, reflecting demand for housing close to work or for investment purposes. In the price range above 20 million baht, the absorption rate is still at 6.5% due to specific demand, resulting in low supply and demand in the market.

The area with the highest number of units for sale is the Phra Khanong-Bang Na-Suan Luang-Pravet zone with 13,505 units, but the project value ranks fourth with a total value of 30,509 million baht.

The second zone is Huai Khwang-Jatujak-Dindaeng with 13,202 units valued at 58,300 million baht.

The third is Thonburi-Klongsan-Bangkok Noi-Bangkok Yai-Bang Phlat with 7,198 units valued at 26,001 million baht.

The fourth is Nonthaburi City-Pak Kret with 6,175 units valued at 16,682 million baht.

The fifth is Sukhumvit with 5,471 units, having the highest project value at 58,477 million baht.

 

For housing projects with the highest number of units for sale, the Lam Luk Ka-Klong Luang-Thanyaburi-Nong Suea zone has 21,224 units valued at 77,996 million baht.

Second place is Bang Phli-Bang Bo-Bang Sao Thong with 15,991 units valued at 75,073 million baht.

Third place is Bang Yai-Bang Bua Thong-Bang Krui-Sai Noi with 15,512 units valued at 72,003 million baht.

Fourth place is Pathum Thani City-Lad Lum Kaew-Sam Khok with 10,066 units valued at 37,979 million baht.

Fifth place is Samut Prakan City-Phra Pradaeng-Phra Samut Chedi with 9,679 units valued at 37,920 million baht.

In the first three months of 2022, there were 29,594 new housing units launched, valued at 106,987 million baht, which is nearly equal to the last half of 2021, which had 32,818 new units valued at 132,530 million baht, due to the resurgence of low-priced condominium projects under 1.5 million baht, with 18,844 new condominium units valued at 47,099 million baht and 10,750 housing project units valued at 59,888 million baht in Q1 2022.

 

The areas with the most new condominium projects launched are the Phra Khanong-Bang Na-Suan Luang-Pravet zone with 6,562 units valued at 9,666 million baht.

Second place is Huai Khwang-Jatujak-Dindaeng with 3,003 units valued at 12,961 million baht.

Third place is Bang Sue-Dusit with 1,857 units valued at 4,808 million baht.

Fourth place is Thonburi-Klongsan-Bangkok Noi-Bangkok Yai-Bang Phlat with 1,429 units valued at 5,018 million baht.

Fifth place is Lak Si-Don Mueang-Sai Mai-Bang Khen with 1,277 units valued at 2,492 million baht.

 

For housing projects with the highest number of new launches, the Bang Phli-Bang Bo-Bang Sao Thong zone has 2,760 units valued at 15,750 million baht.

Second place is Lam Luk Ka-Klong Luang-Thanyaburi-Nong Suea with 1,949 units valued at 7,628 million baht.

Third place is Pathum Thani City-Lad Lum Kaew-Sam Khok with 1,276 units valued at 4,784 million baht.

Fourth place is Bang Yai-Bang Bua Thong-Bang Krui-Sai Noi with 1,071 units valued at 5,272 million baht.

Fifth place is Lak Si-Don Mueang-Sai Mai-Bang Khen with 719 units valued at 5,206 million baht.

 

The Information Center expects that the housing market in the second half of the year still has a chance to gradually recover if there are targeted economic stimulus measures to enhance purchasing power. It is anticipated that the supply of new projects will amount to 83,608 units, an increase of 62.2% from the previous year, up from 51,531 units valued at 386,757 million baht, an increase of 76.6% from 218,948 million baht. It is also expected that there will be a total of 160,473 unsold units, a decrease of 2.7%, valued at 762,810 million baht, a decrease of 4.5%. Demand is expected to see approximately 77,223 new units sold in 2022, an increase of 24.7%, valued at 346,388 million baht, an increase of 16.1%.

However, Thailand is facing significant risk factors from rising inflation due to fluctuating oil prices, which affect the rising cost of living for the entire population, potentially dragging down the real estate business in the future.