Dr. Vichai Viratakphan, Inspector of the Government Housing Bank and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center stated that in the first quarter of 2022, the supply of land allocation permits in Bangkok and its vicinity amounted to 6,982 units, a decrease of 16.1% from the same period in 2020, which had 8,323 units. Meanwhile, the number of completed residential units registered was 17,543 units, down 27.1% compared to the same period in 2021, which had 24,070 units. In Q1 2022, there were 10,011 registered land allocation projects and 7,532 condominium units.

New Housing Project Supply in Q1 2022 saw a significant increase, with a total of 31,477 new housing projects launched, representing a 227.5% increase compared to the same period in 2021, which had 9,611 units. This included 20,536 condominium units, up 421.2%, and 10,941 housing projects, up 92.9%, valued at 117,384 million baht. The value increased by 161.7%, with housing project values at 60,360 million baht, up 126.6%, and condominium projects at 57,023 million baht, up 213%.

Overall, the number of unsold units in the first quarter of 2022 slightly increased from the accumulated total in 2021. By the end of 2021, there were 164,951 unsold units, and in Q1 2022, the accumulated unsold units totaled 172,244, an increase of approximately 4.42%. The value of unsold units was not significantly different, with 798,600 million baht in 2021 and 820,781 million baht in Q1 2022, an increase of only 2.77%.

 

 

In 2022, it is expected that the supply of new project launches for both housing projects and condominiums will increase significantly compared to 2021, particularly for condominiums due to reduced stock and rising land prices. Single-family homes continue to be well-received by homebuyers, but the townhouse segment will still have a large supply remaining in the market. Condominiums are beginning to recover, driven by buyers looking for residences and investment opportunities. New housing projects may slightly reduce promotions to maintain selling prices close to current projects.

 

The trend for 2022 anticipates approximately 43,656 land allocation permits, an increase of 37.9% from 2021, or an increase ranging from 24.1% to 51.7%. It is expected that around 79,501 new housing units will be launched, a 54.3% increase from 2021, or an increase ranging from 38.8% to 69.7%, with a total value of new housing units around 413,022 million baht, an increase of 88.6% from 2021, or an increase ranging from 69.8% to 107.5%.

Meanwhile, the demand for 2022 is expected to see approximately 170,843 units transferred, an increase of 2.0% from 2021, with a transfer value of approximately 594,485 million baht, an increase of 1.7% from 2021.

The launch of new projects will increase significantly compared to 2021, with a high proportion of condominiums due to reduced stock and rising land prices. Single-family homes continue to be well-received by homebuyers, as evidenced by approximately 30,443 new units sold in the first quarter of this year, valued at 137,257 million baht. Townhouses will still have a large supply remaining in the market, while condominiums are beginning to recover from buyers looking for residences and investment opportunities, primarily in two segments: those priced under 1.5 million baht and the luxury segment. Second-hand homes that benefit from transfer fee exemptions and are priced and located within the means of low to middle-income buyers are expected to see continued growth in transfers throughout the year, especially for lower-priced homes, presenting opportunities for the second-hand housing business.

The foreign market remains sluggish, with the number of condominium transfers to foreigners nationwide in 2021 totaling 8,198 units, valued at 39,610 million baht. In the first quarter of 2022, there were 2,107 condominium transfers to foreigners, valued at 10,262 million baht. Chinese buyers had the highest number of transfers both in units and value, with 949 units valued at 4,570 million baht. Russia ranked second with 134 units valued at 435 million baht, and the United States ranked third with 114 units valued at 344 million baht.

It is important to monitor interest rates, which are expected to rise in the second half of the year. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continues to hinder economic growth, despite a reduction in severity. Employment conditions and income in the tourism and service sectors remain slow to recover. Household debt levels are high, approximately 90% of GDP, making it difficult for low to middle-income self-employed individuals to access credit, similar to the previous year. The rising NPL rates of financial institutions may lead to more cautious lending practices. Construction costs continue to rise, which may result in new housing project prices increasing in the second half of the year. The number of foreign tourists, who are potential buyers of condominiums, remains low due to the impacts of COVID-19 and the war between Ukraine and Russia, causing overall demand for condominiums to recover slowly.