A preliminary report from the United Nations indicates that the COVID-19 outbreak could lead to a 5% reduction in Thailand's GDP by 2025 compared to a normal scenario.  

       The economic impact assessment report of COVID-19 on Thailand states that the unemployment rate among women could rise to 4.5%, while the overall unemployment rate is expected to increase to 3.1% for the entire year of 2020. Throughout the year, unemployment is likely to rise further, particularly among informal workers. Additionally, the automotive and tourism industries are expected to experience severe slowdowns, while agricultural production will suffer further damage from the virus outbreak, compounded by existing drought issues. Other sectors, such as healthcare, consumer goods, and financial services, are less affected, and the rapid implementation of economic stimulus measures has somewhat mitigated the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak.

 

       Ms. Geeta Sabharwal, UN Resident Coordinator in Thailand stated that the COVID-19 outbreak could hinder Thailand's efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and negatively impact progress made over the past 2-3 years.

“Economic security is a concerning issue, as nearly half of the labor market has been significantly affected. Although both women and men are equally impacted, women face higher social and economic risks. However, the impact can be alleviated by focusing on policies that benefit people and the environment. Sustainable recovery requires ongoing development towards goals that address climate change and create environmentally friendly jobs. The UN continues to support Thailand in transitioning to a new normal,” she added.

 

The UN report acknowledges the government's swift policy actions to contain and reduce the impact of COVID-19. However, the economic stimulus policy, which currently accounts for 15% of GDP and is comparable to other countries, still requires further development, particularly in adjusting measures in the plan to address Thailand's economic needs. The report highlights that government spending is the most impactful measure for economic recovery and employment, followed by direct financial support for those most in need, as well as assistance in loans, liquidity, tax reductions, and tax deferrals for businesses, along with lowering the Bank of Thailand's interest rates.

 

       Professor Dr. Tosaporn Sirisamphan, Secretary-General of the National Economic and Social Development Council stated that the COVID-19 outbreak has affected Thailand's economy and society both in the short and long term. Therefore, assessing the impact is a priority for the government, which has acted swiftly to survey and analyze the preliminary effects. The NESDC supports the UN's work as a partner in this assessment, and the results will be crucial for formulating measures and driving policies for Thailand's sustainable recovery.

       Mr. Reuno Meyer, UN Development Programme (UNDP) Representative in Thailand stated that COVID-19 has impacted the most vulnerable populations.

“COVID-19 has hit the most vulnerable groups the hardest, further highlighting existing inequalities in society,” Mr. Meyer said. “Vulnerable groups, such as persons with disabilities, the LGBTI community, and various ethnic minorities, are facing severe impacts. Additionally, women are at a higher risk of unemployment as many are in the hardest-hit sectors, such as tourism.”

        Informal workers, who make up more than half of the labor force, are also severely affected as they are not covered by social security and cannot access workplace benefits such as wage subsidies, leave, or sick pay. All of these groups require targeted relief measures.

 

       Mr. Thomas Davin, UNICEF Representative in Thailand stated that vulnerable families need special attention during the recovery phase. “During these challenging times, providing direct assistance to vulnerable families and informal workers is just as important as helping businesses survive and thrive. Therefore, the policies implemented should include long-term measures to strengthen the social protection system, ensuring that no one has to worry about making ends meet at the end of the month.”

Moreover, there should be additional investment in human resources to enhance workforce skills, starting with the youth, as this will be a key factor in determining the success of Thailand's economy in the future.

 

Source: United Nations