January 17, 2019 - Mr. Lawaron Saengsanit, Director of the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), announced that on January 28, 2019, the FPO will release its economic forecast for 2019, which is expected to grow by 4%, as previously commented by the Minister of Finance.


For the economy in 2018, it is anticipated to grow by more than 4%, though whether it will be 4.1% or 4.2% will depend on the latest data, particularly the economic forecast for the last quarter of 2018. There are several factors that have contributed to better-than-expected growth, but there are also many factors that have underperformed, which need to be monitored closely to ensure that the economic forecast reflects reality as accurately as possible.


Mr. Lawaron further stated that air pollution issues have had some impact on Thailand's tourism, potentially causing foreign tourists to delay or cancel their trips to Thailand. However, this issue is expected to be short-lived as the government is actively addressing the problem, which should not affect the economic growth this year.


Mr. Kiatipong Ariyaprathe, Senior Economist at the World Bank in Thailand, revealed that the forecast for Thailand's economy in 2019 has been revised down to 3.8% from a previous estimate of 3.9%, in line with global economic trends, before slightly recovering to 3.9% in 2020. Thailand's economic growth will continue to rely primarily on domestic consumption, as exports are affected by declining global market demand, with Thai exports expected to grow by 5% this year.


Meanwhile, investment in government infrastructure projects and ongoing economic reforms are expected to stimulate domestic consumption next year and promote medium-term economic growth. However, the economy may face increased risks from trade tensions between the U.S. and China, leading to a continued risk of reduced external demand, which could impact Thai exports.


“The World Bank's assessment of Thailand's economic situation at 3.8% this year is based on the assumption that there will be no political unrest due to the upcoming elections. However, if unrest does occur, it would pose an economic risk as it could slow down public investment and further reduce government spending, which is already below target,” Mr. Kiatipong stated.


Mr. Kob Sithi Silpa Chai, Head of Economic Research and Capital Markets at Kasikornbank (KBANK), mentioned at the seminar “Monitoring the Economy and Stock Market in the Year of the Pig” that the overall Thai economy in 2019 is expected to slow down compared to the previous year, similar to the global economy. The key risk factors to watch are the trade war between the U.S. and China, which investors are concerned could slow down the economies of both countries and pressure Thai exports to grow by only 4.5%, while the overall economy is projected to grow by 4%.

 

Thank you for the information from www.thaipost.net