Assessment of Flooding in the Northeast Impacting Economy by Approximately 0.1% of GDP

           Due to heavy rainfall, flooding has occurred in many areas, particularly in the Northeast, which has been affected by Typhoon Sonca, causing widespread damage in several provinces. The provinces most impacted include Sakon Nakhon, Maha Sarakham, Si Sa Ket, Nakhon Ratchasima, and Kalasin.

The Kasikorn Research Center has made an initial assessment of the economic impact of the flooding in the Northeast as follows:

Value of Economic Activities Disrupted or Lost in the Northeast

Note:

1. The economic loss assessment considers that economic activities in severely flooded areas are disrupted for about 7 days, while areas with less severe flooding experience minimal losses. For tourism, the impact may extend to tourist attractions that are not flooded, as difficulties in travel may deter tourists from visiting nearby areas. However, the severe flooding situation has not extended to major tourist provinces, and this period is not a peak tourist season.
2. The impact does not include property damage and infrastructure (such as roads and bridges).
3. The impact on agriculture is calculated based on approximately 460,000 farmers affected, covering 3.6 million rai of crop disaster areas and 560,000 livestock, including fisheries (fish ponds and cages).

          In summary, the Kasikorn Research Center estimates that the recent flooding situation in the Northeast may result in an overall economic loss of approximately 15,725 million baht, or about 0.1% of GDP. However, this is a preliminary assessment that does not include property damage, and it will be necessary to monitor the duration and areas affected periodically, with potential revisions to this figure as appropriate in the future. Additionally, the weather conditions will need to be monitored in the coming period, as the rainy season is not yet over and there may be further storms later in the year.

          Furthermore, although the impact figures may not significantly affect the overall economy at the national level, they do not impact the current economic forecast for Thailand by the Kasikorn Research Center, which expects a growth of 3.4% in 2017, as the export sector continues to perform well. However, at the regional level, the occurrence of such disasters will significantly impact local residents, who in the Northeast are already facing difficulties due to agricultural income issues (such as falling prices for crops like cassava and rubber) and employment challenges, along with issues in the SME sector.