Real Estate Information Center (REIC) of the Government Housing Bank (GHB) has reported the housing market situation for the first quarter of 2026, indicating that the overall demand trends align with REIC's forecasts. There is a noticeable recovery in demand, with property transfers increasing by 11.2% and their value rising by 3.1% compared to the same period last year (YoY). This growth is attributed to government support measures, reflecting that the demand for housing among Thais remains consistent. However, there has been a downward adjustment in prices, sizes, and types of housing to better match purchasing power. The overall housing market outlook for the year is expected to decline due to risks stemming from geopolitical situations in the Middle East, which directly impact energy security, leading to higher transportation and construction material costs, as well as a general inflation rate that is trending upwards, despite remaining within target ranges. This inflation significantly affects household purchasing power. The anticipated decline is less than previously expected due to several positive factors, such as the extension of LTV relaxation measures for another year, a reduction in transfer and mortgage fees to 0.01% for properties priced below 7 million baht, and economic stimulus measures through fiscal policies (400 billion baht loan decree) aimed at supporting the economy and preventing a severe downturn in the housing market. It is projected that the number of property transfers nationwide in 2026 will decrease by only 1.1% (YoY) and the value will drop by just 2.3% (YoY). The trend for new housing loans nationwide in 2026 aligns with the basic case for property transfers, with a forecasted decrease in new loan value of 1.6% (YoY), depending on the persistence of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and risks from a slowdown in the global economy and trade.

Mr. Narongpol Prapanirinthorn, Deputy Managing Director of the Marketing Group and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center (REIC) revealed that the overall housing market situation in Q1 2026 shows an increase in property transfer numbers, although the value has only slightly grown. The total number of property transfers nationwide reached 72,583 units, an increase of 11.2% (YoY), with a total value of 187,182 million baht, up 3.1% (YoY). Bangkok continues to hold the largest market share with 17,746 units, an increase of 11.1% (YoY), but the value decreased by 4.5% (YoY) to 64,952 million baht. Notably, strategic areas in the region have seen demand growth, including Khon Kaen with 1,646 units, a significant increase of 30.3%, and a value of 3,145 million baht, up 29.0% (YoY). Rayong also saw 2,691 units, a 24.0% increase (YoY), with a value of 5,745 million baht, up 25.2% (YoY). Additionally, Phuket recorded the highest growth in transfer value nationwide, with 2,548 units, an increase of 17.9% (YoY), and a value of 10,365 million baht, up 34.9% (YoY), reflecting transfers in the high-end or luxury housing segment in the area. In Bangkok, while the number of units increased, the value decreased, with 17,746 units, up 11.1% (YoY), but a value of 64,952 million baht, down 4.5% (YoY). The peripheral areas also maintained positive growth in both unit numbers and values, with Nonthaburi recording 3,961 units, up 15.3% (YoY), and a value of 11,718 million baht, up 10.5% (YoY), while Pathum Thani had 4,915 units, an increase of 6.7% (YoY), and a value of 10,491 million baht, up 3.7% (YoY).

Furthermore, in Q1 2026, the proportion of property transfers for second-hand homes accounted for 67%, while newly built homes made up only 33%. The price segment that showed positive growth, driving the market in Q1 2026, is the segment priced below 7 million baht, with a total of 69,447 units transferred, an increase of 12.7% (YoY), and a total value of 141,242 million baht, up 11.5% (YoY). This includes 21,990 units of newly built homes, an increase of 8.7% (YoY), with a value of 61,716 million baht, up 6.7% (YoY). Second-hand homes accounted for 47,457 units, an increase of 14.7% (YoY), with a value of 79,526 million baht, up 15.5% (YoY). Notably, the high-end housing segment priced above 7 million baht experienced a clear contraction in unit numbers for both new and second-hand homes, with a total of 3,136 units transferred, down 14.8% (YoY), and a total value of 45,940 million baht, down 16.3% (YoY).

Regarding foreign condominium transfers, there was a clear contraction contrary to the overall transfer situation. In Q1 2026, there were 3,241 units transferred by foreigners, a decrease of 17.3% (YoY), with a value of 13,464 million baht, down 17.9% (YoY). Foreign property transfers still play a significant role, accounting for 13.6% of total condominium transfers in terms of units and 23.9% in terms of value. The top three nationalities with the highest property transfers include China, with 906 units transferred, down 38.8% (YoY), and a value of 3,493 million baht, down 42.9% (YoY). Russia showed significant growth contrary to the overall trend, ranking second with 383 units, an increase of 33.0% (YoY), and a value of 1,665 million baht, up 68.7% (YoY). Myanmar emerged as the third-largest buyer in both unit numbers and value, with 279 units, down 36.4% (YoY), and a value of 968 million baht, down 39.0% (YoY). Popular areas for foreigners remain concentrated in tourist destinations and economic centers, including Bangkok, with the highest value at 6,138 million baht, accounting for 45.6% of the total foreign market. Chonburi holds the highest number of unit transfers with 1,167 units, or 36.0%, while Phuket stands out for its value growth, soaring by 34.9% (YoY), driven by the luxury housing segment.

Regarding the housing loan situation, there are signs of a positive recovery after experiencing continuous contraction since Q4 2023. In Q1 2026, the total value of new personal housing loans nationwide reached 121,557 million baht, an increase of 11.1% (YoY), resulting in a total outstanding personal housing loan amount of 5,137,832 million baht, up 2.4% (YoY).

For the housing market outlook in 2026, despite a downward trend due to conflicts in the Middle East leading to an energy crisis, there are still positive variables that will result in a smaller decline in the housing market than previously anticipated. The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) estimates GDP growth to be between 1.5% and 2.5%, driven by fiscal measures such as the 400 billion baht loan decree and the extension of the Bank of Thailand's LTV measures. With these supportive factors, REIC has revised its estimates, projecting around 312,814 units to be transferred, a decrease of 1.1% (YoY), and a value of approximately 845,235 million baht, down 2.3% (YoY).