Real Estate Information Center (REIC) of the Government Housing Bank (GHB) revealed that the government's "Quick Big Win" measures, which include reducing transfer and mortgage fees to 0.01% for residential properties valued up to 7 million baht, relaxing loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, and maintaining low policy interest rates, have positively impacted the real estate sector. It is predicted that in Q4/2025, the number of residential property transfers nationwide will increase by 13.1% compared to Q3/2025, with new residential loans nationwide increasing by 9.5%, reflecting the confidence of the public and financial institutions in the overall market and economy, which is expected to have lasting positive effects into 2026.

Mr. Kamolphop Veerapala, Managing Director of the Government Housing Bank (GHB) and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center (REIC) stated that the overall housing market situation in Q3 of 2025 shows continuous signs of recovery from the previous quarter, with demand increasing in Q3 compared to Q2 (QoQ). Positive factors from government measures include the reduction of transfer and mortgage fees to 0.01% for residential properties priced up to 7 million baht, relaxed LTV ratios, and low policy interest rates, which have boosted consumer confidence. Additionally, developers have started to adjust prices flexibly according to the purchasing power of buyers looking for actual residences. All of this has directly contributed to the increase in residential property transfers and the rise in housing loan disbursements. In Q3, the total number of residential property transfers nationwide reached 84,397 units, an increase of 9.1%, valued at 226,166 million baht, up 7.7%. This includes 57,581 units of single-family homes, up 6.7%, valued at 164,060 million baht, up 4.7%, and 26,816 units of condominiums, up 14.8%, valued at 62,106 million baht, up 16.4%. Notably, there was an increase in all price ranges, especially for newly built homes priced below 1 million baht, which saw a 37% increase in transfers, while second-hand homes priced between 5.01 and 7.50 million baht experienced a 14.1% increase in transfers compared to the previous quarter. The top 10 provinces with the highest transfer values in Q3 of 2025 include Bangkok, Chonburi, Samut Prakan, Nonthaburi, Pathum Thani, Phuket, Chiang Mai, Rayong, Nakhon Ratchasima, and Khon Kaen. The provinces that saw growth in transfers compared to the same quarter last year (YoY) in Q3 included Phuket, Rayong, and Nakhon Ratchasima, which are areas with tourism and industrial investment potential. In the first nine months of 2025, only Phuket, Rayong, and Nakhon Ratchasima saw an increase in the number of property transfers compared to the same period last year (YoY).

Regarding foreign ownership of condominiums, Q3 of 2025 showed an upward trend compared to the same period last year, with 3,844 units transferred, an increase of 2.3%, valued at 15,378 million baht, a decrease of 17.2% compared to the same period last year (YoY). The top three countries with the highest value of condominium transfers in Q3 of 2025 were China, Taiwan, and Myanmar. China continued to show a downward trend, with 1,335 units transferred this quarter, valued at 4,573 million baht, a decrease of 11.8% in units and 34.6% in value. Taiwan saw an increase with 376 units valued at 1,844 million baht, up 31.5% in units and 17.1% in value. Myanmar transferred 517 units this quarter, an increase of 25.5%, but the value decreased to 1,550 million baht, down 30.3%. Overall, many countries showed an upward trend in condominium transfers in line with the increase in tourist numbers.

However, accumulated demand in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period last year (YoY) still contracted in both the number and value of property transfers. The total number of residential property transfers was 227,106 units, down 9.3% from 250,386 units last year, with a total value of 617,768 million baht, down 12.4% from 705,085 million baht last year, reflecting a purchasing power that has not fully recovered. This includes 155,125 units of single-family homes, down 7.3% from 167,308 units last year, valued at 446,309 million baht, down 9.4% from 492,506 million baht last year, and 71,991 units of condominiums, down 13.3% from 83,078 units last year, valued at 171,458 million baht, down 19.3% from 212,578 million baht last year.

Regarding housing loans, in Q3 of 2025, the total value was 146,834 million baht, an increase of 9.5% compared to 134,115 million baht in Q2 of 2025 (QoQ), benefiting from the positive effects of two real estate stimulus measures. However, in the first nine months of 2025, new personal housing loans totaled 390,317 million baht, down 6.6% compared to 417,944 million baht in the same period last year (YoY).

Mr. Kamolphop further stated that although the accumulated residential property transfers in the past have contracted, the government's implementation of the “Quick Big Win” measures, such as stimulating domestic purchasing power through the co-payment scheme, promoting domestic tourism through tax measures for individuals to support tourism, accelerating government disbursements, and clean energy projects, addressing household debt issues through the establishment of Asset Management Companies (AMC), and restructuring household bad debts, as well as supporting SMEs, are expected to positively impact the real estate sector and the overall economy. This will lead to a recovery in the number of residential property transfers nationwide in Q4 of 2025, with an expected total of 95,484 units, an increase of 13.1% from Q3 (QoQ), valued at 255,632 million baht, up 13.0% from 226,166 million baht in Q3. The total value of new personal housing loans nationwide in Q4 of 2025 is projected to be around 160,775 million baht, an increase of 9.5% from 146,834 million baht in Q3.

However, for the entire year of 2025, the total number of residential property transfers nationwide is still expected to be negative, but the decline is less than previously anticipated, with an estimated total of 322,500 units, down 7.3% compared to 2024, and a transfer value of approximately 873,400 million baht, down 10.9% compared to 2024. It is anticipated that in 2026, the situation will continue to improve, with an estimated total of 320,200 residential property transfers nationwide, a decrease of only 0.7% compared to 2025, and a transfer value of approximately 866,200 million baht, down 0.8% compared to 2025. Meanwhile, new housing loans nationwide in 2025 are expected to total approximately 551,092 million baht, down 5.8% compared to 2024, which had a value of 584,843 million baht, and it is projected that new housing loans nationwide in 2026 will be approximately 547,533 million baht, down 0.6% compared to 551,092 million baht in 2025.