Global Economic Situation

  1. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by another 0.25% in December 2025 after a weakening labor market and plans to end liquidity absorption measures (QT) on December 1.

  2. Global trade has eased as the U.S., China, and several countries in Asia reach a "Reciprocal Trade Agreement," focusing on rare earth minerals, energy, and agriculture.

  3. The WTO and IMF have raised their growth forecasts for 2025 (IMF predicts global GDP at 3.1%), but warn that growth will slow in 2026 due to trade uncertainties.

  4. Financial markets remain highly volatile with gold prices up 51.3% YTD and the S&P 500 up 17.4%, experiencing the highest volatility in five years.

  5. Political issues in Japan and France are pressuring markets as Japan is concerned about rising public debt after "Takaichi" won the election, while France faces a fragmented parliament that stalls austerity measures.

Thai Economic Situation

  1. Export forecasts for 2025 have been revised upward to 11.0% from the previous 5.7%

    • The main drivers are electronics and unrefined gold.

    • In September 2025, exports grew by 19% YoY.

  2. The Thai economy is expected to grow by 1.8% for the entire year of 2025

    • Supported by the "Half-Half Plus" stimulus program (with a budget of over 44 billion baht), expected to boost GDP by about 0.15%.

  3. Thai inflation for 2025 has been revised down to -0.1%

    • Due to falling energy and agricultural prices.

    • Inflation in September was negative for the sixth consecutive month at -0.72% YoY.

    • Core inflation stands at 0.65% YoY, but over 40% of items in the CPI basket have seen price declines.

  4. The risk of deflation is increasing due to significant price drops in goods and pressure from cheap imports from China.

  5. Risk factors for 2026 include the full impact of U.S. import taxes and a slowdown in domestic consumption.

Key Figures (Forecast by KResearch – as of October 2025)

Indicator 2024 2025F
GDP 2.5% 1.8%
Private Consumption 4.4% 2.0%
Total Investment 0.0% 1.1%
Exports (USD) 5.5% 11.0%
Imports (USD) 5.9% 10.3%
General Inflation 0.4% -0.1%
Foreign Tourists 35.5 million 32.2 million
Average Dubai Oil Price 79.7 USD/barrel 68 USD/barrel

Policy Summary

  • The global economy is stabilizing but remains highly vulnerable to political and trade policy risks.

  • Despite support from exports and government measures, the Thai economy still faces deflationary pressures.

  • KResearch warns that the recovery of domestic demand will determine the direction of the Thai economy in 2026.