The market for homes priced at 10 million baht and above in Bangkok and its surrounding areas continues to see increasing demand. This is despite a tight economic landscape and stringent lending criteria. However, High Net Worth and Ultra Affluent buyers remain the main driving force in this market segment. Developers are focusing on distributing supply in potential locations, such as the eastern and western zones of Bangkok, which together account for over 50% of new supply, emphasizing luxury single-family homes that cater to the lifestyle of affluent buyers. Some projects have begun adjusting prices and promotions to accelerate purchasing decisions.

Supply

The supply of luxury homes priced at 10 million baht and above has steadily increased from 12,349 units in 2019 to 37,775 units. The period from the second half of 2027 to April 2028 indicates continuous growth in the high-end housing market, reflecting sustained long-term demand for luxury homes. Data from new supply launched from the second half of 2027 to April 2028 shows that homes priced between 10-30 million baht account for 78% of the market, particularly in the 10-20 million baht range, which holds a 48% share. This reflects developers' strategies to adapt to the mid-luxury housing market to meet the needs of buyers who, while affluent, remain sensitive to interest rates and economic conditions. In contrast, homes priced above 70 million baht account for less than 5% of new supply, indicating that the Ultra Luxury market remains a niche segment that requires specific strategies and truly high-value locations.

Furthermore, when considering the distribution of luxury home supply by location in Bangkok and its vicinity, the eastern zone of Bangkok holds the highest share at 26% of total supply. This reflects developers' preference for locations near expressway networks, Suvarnabhumi Airport, and new commercial centers such as Rama 9 – Krungthep Kreetha – Lat Krabang. This is followed by the Western Suburb and Western Bangkok zones, which account for 21% and 20% of supply, respectively, areas with potential for large-scale horizontal development with complete infrastructure and amenities. Meanwhile, the downtown area has only a 3% share, reflecting land and high cost constraints, leading developers to invest more in suburban areas. The zones with the least supply are the Southern Suburb and Northern Suburb, which together account for less than 2%, indicating that these areas are not currently primary targets for the luxury housing market.

Demand for luxury homes priced at 10 million baht and above in Bangkok and its vicinity continues to attract interest from high-potential buyers, with overall demand steadily increasing to 24,790 units, or a sales rate of 65.6%. Homes priced between 10-40 million baht account for over 75% of total sales, reflecting that the main demand is concentrated in the mid to upper luxury home segment, which remains accessible for High Net Worth Individuals and executives seeking large homes with complete functions in potential locations.

However, despite ongoing demand, the number of luxury home sales from 2027 to April 2028 has decreased to only 1,000-1,500 units, which is below the average of the previous year. This reflects a slowdown in decision-making among some buyers amid economic uncertainty. While buyers still have potential, they are taking more time to consider and choose their purchases.

From the distribution of accumulated demand for luxury homes in the second half of 2027 to April 2028, the Eastern Bangkok zone holds the highest share at 28% of the total market, reflecting consumer preference for luxury home projects in the eastern part of Bangkok, which connects to expressway networks, airports, and new business centers, particularly the Krungthep Kreetha-Rama 9 area, which continues to be popular. The Western Bangkok and Western Suburb zones follow with accumulated demand shares of 21% and 16%, respectively, indicating strong ongoing demand for luxury homes in the western areas due to large usable space, reasonable unit prices, and the expansion of the electric train network. Meanwhile, the Downtown zone has only a 4% demand share due to land constraints and high land prices, leading luxury home consumers to prefer out-of-town locations that offer better value. Other areas, such as Northern Bangkok, Southern Bangkok, and Eastern Suburb, continue to play a moderate role, with the lowest accumulated demand in the Northern and Southern Suburb zones at only 1%, reflecting that these areas are not currently primary targets for luxury home buyers.

When separating supply and demand by price level, it is found that demand in the luxury home market remains concentrated in the price range of 10-30 million baht, particularly in the 10-20 million baht segment, which has the highest sales of 13,891 units, accounting for 38% of total sales in the second half of the year. This reflects the popularity among buyers with high purchasing power who still prioritize value. The buyer group typically consists of executives, businesspeople, or new families seeking high-quality residences in potential locations. Meanwhile, homes priced above 70 million baht, despite limited supply in the market, have a high sales rate of 84%, particularly in the 71-99 million baht range, reflecting the demand from ultra-affluent clients who seek homes that meet their needs for location, privacy, and social status. This buyer group often does not rely on loans and tends to use lifestyle or emotional value considerations in their purchasing decisions.

Market Trends

The luxury home market is expected to remain stable or grow cautiously, balancing supportive factors and constraints that need to be monitored. On the positive side, the demand for real estate from high-income groups continues to be a significant driving force, as these buyers are not directly affected by short-term economic conditions. Additionally, there is a trend to view luxury homes as a living option or an asset to diversify risks from investments in financial markets. Meanwhile, leading developers continue to launch new luxury projects in potential locations such as Ratchaphruek, Krungthep Kreetha, Rama 9-Bangna-Samut Prakan, and Thonburi, as this segment still offers high returns per unit and lower stock risk compared to the overall market. Furthermore, if the government continues to implement measures to stimulate the real estate sector, such as reducing transfer fees and mortgage fees for high-priced homes or relaxing LTV criteria, it could further support purchasing decisions.

However, the market still faces challenges from certain risk factors, particularly interest rates, which, although expected to decrease in the second half of 2028, remain above historical averages. This may affect those who rely on loans to purchase luxury homes. Additionally, the high household debt level, around 89-90% of GDP, may impact overall consumer confidence, even though it is not the primary target group for this segment. The accumulation of supply during 2026-2027 may also begin to exceed demand in some locations, particularly for high-priced horizontal homes launched simultaneously, which could lead to a slowdown in absorption in certain market segments in the near future.

Mr. Frank Khan, Partner and Head of Residential at Knight Frank Thailand, stated, "Although the overall economic situation remains uncertain, the luxury home market in Bangkok still has a strong customer base, particularly among buyers with purchasing power looking for residences that meet lifestyle and long-term quality of life needs. Demand in the 10-30 million baht segment remains the core of the market, while the Ultra Luxury segment continues to have stable demand among niche clients. Developers should focus on designing differentiated products that can meet specific needs effectively to maintain market stability in the long term."