The Kasikorn Research Center estimates that total spending by Bangkok residents during the New Year festival of 2023 will be around 30.9 billion baht, representing a growth of 10.5% (YoY) compared to the same period last year. This increase is attributed to a resurgence in activities and travel, contrasting with last year's New Year celebrations which were impacted by the Omicron outbreak. Additionally, there is some support from the 'Shop Dee Mee Khuen' tax deduction initiative, which may encourage spending among middle to high-income groups looking to utilize tax benefits. However, most people will allocate a budget specifically for celebrations during the limited 4-day New Year holiday and will plan their spending more cautiously after the festival due to ongoing concerns about expenses and high product prices.

Given the current situation where purchasing power has not fully recovered, and businesses continue to face rising costs amid intensified competition, operators face challenges in managing costs and developing products/services to stimulate spending among customers who still have sufficient purchasing power.

During New Year 2023, the public is returning to activities and travel more than in the same period last year… but there are still factors pressuring purchasing power.

With the fragile recovery of income and high living costs, consumers are still pressured to plan their spending carefully. Nevertheless, as the COVID-19 situation has eased, most people have resumed outdoor activities and travel. Recent festivals in the latter half of 2022 have returned to normal celebrations, aligning with survey results indicating that most Bangkok residents still prioritize festival celebrations, possibly allocating additional funds beyond their regular expenses for activities during the festival within a limited budget.

The Kasikorn Research Center believes that consumer spending decisions are still influenced by rising product prices and utility costs, and the trend of COVID-19 infections should be monitored as it may affect activity participation.

At the end of 2022, over half of the survey respondents indicated that special discounts from stores would be the most significant factor to stimulate increased spending compared to normal. Additionally, the government's New Year gift measures also impact spending decisions, particularly among those earning 30,000 baht or more per month, who are expected to increase their spending at the beginning of 2023 and utilize tax deductions under the 'Shop Dee Mee Khuen' initiative.

It is expected that Bangkok residents' spending during New Year 2023 will increase compared to last year… with additional spending for celebrations during the limited time, supported by government measures.

  • Bangkok residents plan to celebrate the New Year festival the most, with over half of the respondents choosing to gather at restaurants (56%), an increase from last year, as they plan to travel and engage in outdoor activities, allocating special expenses for gatherings, especially during the New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. Despite the rising trend of COVID-19 infections at the year's end, most people remain confident in public health measures, increasing self-protection, and choosing restaurants with private spaces and reservation systems. Meanwhile, those opting to cook at home account for a smaller proportion (43%) due to convenience and the ability to purchase ingredients within their budget.
  • Support from the 'Shop Dee Mee Khuen' initiative (the initiative) for spending between January 1 and February 15, 2023, covering the New Year festival, may stimulate shopping, especially among respondents earning 30,000 baht or more per month, who plan to increase their average shopping budget by at least 20% compared to normal spending without the initiative. Part of this is due to consumers timing their purchases to coincide with the initiative to utilize tax deductions, alongside promotional campaigns during the festival. The products consumers are likely to purchase include consumer goods, clothing, and health-related products, reflecting a trend towards health consciousness.
  • Additionally, survey results indicate that spending on recreational activities, such as concerts, festivals, and international travel, is also expected to increase, following the relaxation of public health measures in the country, the policy of welcoming tourists from various countries, and the convenience of travel.

The Kasikorn Research Center estimates that total spending by Bangkok residents during the New Year festival of 2023 will be around 30.9 billion baht, representing a growth of 10.5% (YoY) compared to the same period last year, driven by a resurgence in activities and travel compared to last year's New Year celebrations affected by the Omicron outbreak, along with some support from the 'Shop Dee Mee Khuen' initiative that may stimulate spending among middle to high-income groups seeking tax deductions. However, most people will allocate a budget specifically for celebrations during the limited 4-day New Year holiday (December 30, 2022 – January 2, 2023) and will plan their spending more cautiously after the festival due to ongoing concerns about expenses and high product prices affecting consumer purchasing power.

Overall, spending during New Year 2023 by Bangkok residents is expected to be close to the levels seen during the New Year festival of 2018 (before the COVID-19 outbreak), but this year's growth is partly due to the low base from the New Year festival of 2022, coupled with the impact of rising service prices due to inflation, as Bangkok residents return to normal activities as COVID-19 eases.

The Kasikorn Research Center believes that spending behavior among Bangkok residents may grow well during limited timeframes, under the condition that purchasing power has not fully recovered, and businesses continue to face rising costs amid intensified competition. Therefore, in addition to promoting sales during the festival, operators face challenges in managing costs and meeting consumer demands for both product quality and customer experience to help stimulate sales, particularly from customers who still have sufficient purchasing power, including:

  • The trend for health-related products is the most popular choice (65%), especially among respondents aged 35-49, with over 50% of those interested in purchasing health products. These include supplements, cosmetics, and exercise equipment, which are expected to grow alongside the increasing elderly population and the working-age group becoming more health-conscious. Additionally, the trend for environmentally friendly products is the second factor consumers will consider (34%), particularly among younger generations willing to pay more for these products, whether in terms of using eco-friendly materials, reducing harmful chemicals, or products that can be reused or recycled.
  • During the New Year shopping season, most respondents still prefer to shop in-store, whether at department stores or hypermarkets (29%), but the proportion of those shopping online through e-marketplaces and social commerce (24%) is also close to in-store shopping. This may be due to convenience and familiarity with regular online purchases, alongside ongoing marketing campaigns at year-end. Therefore, diverse marketing communications, both offline and online (omni-channel), are crucial for creating a seamless shopping experience, boosting sales, enhancing brand awareness, and collecting customer data for future product and service development, including preparing tax invoice systems to facilitate customers under the 'Shop Dee Mee Khuen' initiative.

[1] Kasikorn Research Center poll surveyed Bangkok residents between November 16-30, 2022.

[2] Revised the estimated spending value for the New Year festival of 2022 from 30.5 billion baht to 27.95 billion baht due to concerns over the Omicron outbreak.