The Kasikorn Research Center predicts that Thailand's economic growth rate for 2026 will be 1.6%, down from an expected 2.0% growth in 2025, due to a slowdown in both domestic and foreign demand. Thailand's exports in 2026 are expected to contract, leading to a reduction in key drivers of the Thai economy. Tourism has not fully recovered, while household consumption is supported by government spending and economic stimulus measures that are decreasing due to fiscal constraints. It is anticipated that the Bank of Thailand will cut interest rates once more, and political uncertainty must also be monitored.

Mr. Burin Adulwattana, Managing Director and Chief Economist of Kasikorn Research Center Co., Ltd., stated that in 2026, the World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts a slowdown in global trade from a growth of 2.4% in 2025 to 0.5% due to the impact of Trump's tax measures on trade costs and increased uncertainty. In 2025, global trade benefited from a surge in exports before the tax was enforced in August, along with strong demand for AI-related products, particularly exports from Asia to the U.S. driven by investments in Data Centers and AI infrastructure. In contrast, non-AI products have clearly slowed down, while exports from China to Asia continue to grow well, unlike exports to the U.S. However, businesses in China are facing intense competition in terms of production capacity and price wars (Anti-Involution), which continuously pressure profit margins in the Chinese business sector.

Ms. Natthaporn Treeratnasilkul, Deputy Managing Director of Kasikorn Research Center Co., Ltd., indicated that the Thai economy is expected to slow down in 2026, with the center forecasting a growth rate of 1.6% compared to 2.0% in 2025. Thailand's exports are expected to contract, reducing key economic drivers. Tourism is still recovering slowly, while household consumption, a primary driver of the economy, is likely to slow down due to decreasing government spending and economic stimulus measures constrained by fiscal limitations. The Bank of Thailand is expected to cut the policy interest rate once more in 2026, and political uncertainty, especially after the elections, must also be monitored.

Ms. Kewalin Wangpichayasook, Deputy Managing Director of Kasikorn Research Center Co., Ltd., assessed that the business outlook for 2026 remains challenging, with a slowdown in orders both domestically and internationally, along with competition from imported goods putting continuous pressure on production. This may lead to the Industrial Production Index (MPI) facing the risk of contracting for the fourth consecutive year. Most service businesses (e.g., retail, restaurants, medical, construction, etc.) are expected to see slower growth. At the same time, the costs of some raw materials remain high, and labor costs may rise, making it more difficult to generate net income in a low-growth market. Businesses must focus on increasing productivity, adapting to trends differently, and seeking new markets.

Ms. Thanyalak Watcharachaisurapol, Deputy Managing Director of Kasikorn Research Center Co., Ltd., further stated that commercial bank lending registered in the country (Thai banking system) is expected to continue contracting in 2026, aligning with the slowdown in economic and business activities. It is anticipated that lending in the Thai banking system will contract by 0.7% in 2026, following a projected contraction of 2.3% in 2025. SME and retail lending, including home loans and hire purchase loans, will continue to contract due to income and purchasing power constraints of households. Meanwhile, household debt in 2026 is expected to slow down to a level not exceeding 85% of GDP, which is still considered relatively high. Additionally, the ability of borrowers to repay debts and the quality of loans in 2026 must also be monitored.