1. “The Boiling Frog Theory and Aged Society”

This year, in addition to the Covid-19 pandemic, which is a public health crisis, followed by an economic crisis and the crisis arising from the Russia-Ukraine war, Thailand also faces a crisis of a “Complete Aged Society” in 2022 (A complete aged society is defined as a society where the population aged 60 and over exceeds 20%).

In fact, Thailand has been entering an aged society (with more than 10% of the population aged 60 and over) since 2000. This transition to an aged society resembles the “Boiling Frog Theory”, where the water gradually heats up until the frog, complacent, dies when the water reaches its boiling point, leaving it unable to jump out.

Image from https://www.facebook.com/PhillipLifeAssurance/photos/your-destiny-or-someone/234012118626
 

2.Starting from 2023, we will have 1,000,000 people aged 60 each year for the next 20 years

- The Baby Boom in Thailand occurred between 1963 and 1983 (with an increase of 1 million births per year for 20 years).

- Generation X will be most affected, as they have a peer group of 20,000,000 people.

- Companies will increasingly face a growing number of retirees, leading to a labor shortage.

- The government will face a rising burden in paying pensions to the elderly.

- The social security system will reach a turning point, where the number of workers contributing to social security will begin to decrease compared to those relying on it.

- Retirees will need to take care of themselves in all aspects, including health, economy, society, and environment (relying on others will be difficult).

- An aged society affects everyone, not just the elderly. Generation X will bear the burden of caring for both their own parents and their children. Generation Y, which is smaller in number, will also have to care for their Generation X parents.
 

3.In 2022, the water begins to boil... a crisis emerges

- With more retirees and an increasing elderly population... a labor shortage... the rise of foreign labor

- Thai people are marrying later + having fewer children... leading to a labor shortage

- Labor shortages... necessitating wage increases and rising inflation

- An increasing elderly population + fewer children + a declining workforce... production and consumption decrease... the economy slows down

- Rising inflation leads the elderly to fear insufficient savings... they save and reduce consumption... further slowing the economy

- An increasing elderly population... a declining workforce... reducing the demand for housing

Many countries are currently facing these issues, such as Japan and Europe.

If we do not transform this crisis into an opportunity

Thailand will remain trapped in the “Complete Aged Society” for many more years.

 

4.What opportunities does an aged society create?

- Products that can enhance the quality of life for the elderly, such as medications, vitamins, and various anti-aging products.

- Devices that facilitate a comfortable, safe lifestyle, preventing falls.

- Financial systems, investments, and life insurance that are comprehensive and suitable.

- Travel and leisure opportunities, including hotels and restaurants.

- Healthy and wellness real estate.

- Various services that can provide in-home care, such as cleaning, health care, and meals...

Importantly, the government must collaborate with the private sector to address the labor shortage.

Transforming the economy from labor-intensive to a creative economy that utilizes technology.

The government must encourage the working-age population to save and create a retirement care system.

Investing in urban infrastructure, such as public transport and parks, to accommodate the elderly.

This will create a city that is friendly to everyone and can attract quality tourists.
 

5.Conclusion

In 2022, the water begins to boil... a crisis has emerged. If we do not adapt... in another 10 years, this Thai frog will surely perish.

An aged society will lead to multiple crises and create numerous opportunities.

Rapid adaptation with strategies by the government and private sector working together

will lead to the creation of opportunities for Thailand.

June 11, 2022 join the seminar “2022 Complete Aged Society... Crisis or Opportunity”

Register for the event click here

Phone: 092-518-1301, 02-218-4354

Line: udguru

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