The Thai Export Council (TCE) has maintained its export growth target for the entire year of 2018 at 5.5%. This is based on the assumption that the exchange rate will be 31.5 baht per US dollar and crude oil prices will range from 60 to 65 US dollars per barrel. Positive factors include global economic growth and the growth of key trading partners, an increase in machinery imports for production, and the import of capital goods. However, the rising oil prices are impacting agricultural products and related prices. Overall, the outlook for Thai exports this year remains optimistic.

          Ms. Kanyapak Tantipiphatpong, President of the Thai International Freight Forwarders Association (TCE), stated that the council is optimistic about the export outlook for 2018, despite some risks. One of the key risks to monitor is the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar, which has led to a 2.88% appreciation of the baht since the beginning of the year. This is a significant concern for exporters. Other risks include US trade barriers and retaliatory measures from trading partners, logistical issues such as a shortage of shipping containers, port congestion, and traffic at Laem Chabang port. Additionally, government measures affecting exporters' costs need to be considered.

          In particular, issues related to taxes on electronic waste, policies for guaranteeing prices of certain basic capital goods, such as corn prices (a key ingredient for animal feed), are impacting exporters' costs and competitiveness. The economic grouping of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which Thailand is not a part of, could lead to missed opportunities for the country, as well as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

          Nevertheless, the Export Council has recommendations for relevant agencies to address trade barriers (NTBs) and to stabilize the baht to ensure it does not appreciate more than competitors. The government should implement short-term measures to assist businesses affected by wage increases, such as tax reductions and exemptions for corporate taxes on imported machinery. Emphasis should also be placed on trade negotiations, particularly the EU-Thailand Free Trade Agreement, which presents new trade opportunities for Thailand. The government should facilitate trade further, including promoting e-commerce trade.

          For January 2018, exports were valued at 20.101 billion US dollars, representing a growth of 17.6%, the highest growth in 5 years and 2 months compared to the same month last year. Imports were valued at 20.220 billion US dollars, growing by 24.3% compared to the same month last year, resulting in a trade deficit of 119 million US dollars for the second consecutive month, attributed to high imports of capital goods and raw materials due to the strong baht.