According to analysis suggesting that the housing market is slowing down, as evidenced by the decreasing number of new projects for sale, Supalai Research presents an analysis by measuring market size or demand based on the number of units sold, which is considered a more accurate method.

            If we claim that the market slowdown is due to companies outside the stock exchange or smaller firms, this analysis is not entirely accurate. The market share of companies outside the stock exchange is only 30%, while companies listed on the stock exchange hold 70%. Assuming that sales for companies outside the stock exchange drop by -50%, this would result in an overall decrease in the real estate market of -15%. However, since companies listed on the stock exchange have a 70% market share, to offset this -15%, they would need to grow overall by +21%, which is a feasible trend. This is supported by the fact that the top 1-4 companies listed on the stock exchange have seen growth rates of +112%, +75%, +45%, and +29%, respectively (Source: Phatra Securities). Therefore, we can confidently assert that the data from the first half of the year does not indicate a decrease in the overall market value of real estate.

            If the figures of +112%, +75%, +45%, and +29% are overly optimistic, we can refer to data from AREA (Agency for Real Estate Affairs) which shows that total sales in the first half of 2017 amounted to 44,790 units, less than half of the total sales for the entire year of 2016. It is normal for sales in the first half of the year to be lower than in the second half. Looking at the product details for the first half of the year, single houses sold 5,520 units, and townhomes sold 11,922 units, which are slightly less than half of the total figures for 2016. Statistically, this is considered insignificant. However, condominium sales in the first half of the year were significantly lower than in 2016, which may be a warning sign. Nonetheless, it is expected that sales in the first half will be lower than in the second half, so this data may not be critical.

 

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