LWS predicts that the real estate market in the Bangkok and surrounding areas during the second half of 2025 will continue to show signs of slowing down due to the economic downturn caused by the impact of the U.S. tax increase measures. Domestic purchasing power is also declining, and financial institutions remain strict in their credit approval processes, even though interest rates are trending downwards and there are measures to relax the Loan to Value (LTV) ratio and reduce transfer and mortgage fees to 0.01%.

Mr. Prabhan Sak Raksaiwan, Managing Director of LWS Wisdom and Solutions Co., Ltd., a research and development company in the real estate sector under LP.N. Development Public Company Limited, stated that the trend of the real estate market in Bangkok and surrounding areas during the second half of 2025 is likely to continue slowing down from the first half of the year. This is a result of the ongoing economic slowdown, exacerbated by the U.S. trade barriers, which include a 36% import tariff on goods from Thailand, effective August 1, 2025. This has led to forecasts that Thailand's economy in 2025 will grow below 2%, down from previous estimates of 2.7-3%.

“The low growth rate of the Thai economy has resulted in decreased income and purchasing power among the population. Coupled with financial institutions remaining strict in their credit approval processes for both housing loans and consumer loans, this directly impacts the purchasing power for housing. Even though domestic interest rates are trending downwards and there are measures to relax the Loan to Value (LTV) ratio and reduce transfer and mortgage fees to 0.01%, it has not been able to stimulate purchasing power as most buyers are still concerned about their future income, leading them to delay decisions on purchasing long-term debt housing,” Mr. Prabhan said.

Given this trend, it is expected that in 2025, the number and value of new housing projects launched will decrease, as real estate developers will delay their plans to launch new projects to reduce the risk of launching projects that may not sell as planned, which requires high investment. Instead, they will focus on accelerating the sale of existing inventory to improve financial liquidity and reduce interest burdens from holding properties. This trend is reflected in the number of new projects launched in the first half of 2025, which decreased in both number and value, accounting for 54% and 46%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2024, Mr. Prabhan noted.

In the first half of the year, the number of new project launches decreased by 54%

According to a survey of new housing project launches in Bangkok and surrounding areas during the first half of 2025 by LWS, there were a total of 104 new housing projects launched in the first half of 2025 (January-June 2025), accounting for a total of 14,942 units with a total value of 109,220 million baht, representing decreases of 42%, 54%, and 46%, respectively, compared to the 182 projects, 32,675 units, and 201,517 million baht in the same period of 2024.

Among these, there were 23 new condominium projects launched in the first half of 2025, totaling 7,393 units with a value of 22,956 million baht, down 30%, 45%, and 56%, respectively, from 33 new projects, 13,377 units, and 51,802 million baht in the same period of 2024. Meanwhile, the average selling price of condominiums launched in the first half of 2025 was 3.10 million baht per unit, down 20% from the average selling price of 3.87 million baht per unit in the same period of 2024.

In contrast, the launch of residential houses in the first half of 2025 totaled 81 projects, accounting for 7,549 units with a total launch value of 86,264 million baht, down 46%, 61%, and 42%, respectively, compared to 149 new projects, 19,298 units, and 149,715 million baht in the same period of 2024. The average selling price of newly launched residential houses in the first half of 2025 was 11.42 million baht per unit, an increase of 47% compared to the average selling price of 7.75 million baht per unit in the first half of 2024, as there were premium houses launched at prices exceeding 10 million baht per unit, with significantly higher values than in the same period of 2024.

According to LWS's survey, in the first half of 2025, there were 48 premium houses priced over 10 million baht, accounting for 2,690 units with a total value of 63,444 million baht, down 9.4%, 26%, and 22%, respectively, compared to 53 projects, 3,656 units, and 80,892 million baht in the same period of 2024. The average selling price of premium houses in the first half of 2025 was 23.58 million baht per unit, an increase of 6.6% from the average selling price of 22.12 million baht per unit in the first half of 2024.

Meanwhile, the launch of residential houses priced below 10 million baht in the first half of 2025 totaled 33 projects, accounting for 4,859 units with a total launch value of 22,820 million baht, down 66%, 69%, and 67%, respectively, compared to 96 projects, 15,642 units, and 68,823 million baht in the same period of 2024. The average selling price of residential houses priced below 10 million baht in the first half of 2025 was 4.69 million baht per unit, an increase of 6.83% from the average selling price of 4.39 million baht per unit in the first half of 2024.

Lak Si-Bearing-Sathu Pradit Areas Show High Purchasing Power

In terms of locations with high purchasing power, LWS's survey found that for newly launched condominiums in the second quarter of 2025, projects in the Lak Si-Chaeng Watthana area showed high purchasing power, with sales at launch reaching 40% of the 328 units available for sale, followed by the Tiwanon area with sales at launch of 30% from 154 units launched.

For residential houses priced below 10 million baht launched in the second quarter of 2025, the best-selling location was the Bearing-Wat Dan area, which sold 51 units at launch from a total of 222 units launched, accounting for 23% of the total units launched in this area, followed by Pathum Thani, which sold 49 units from 288 units launched, accounting for 17% of the total units launched in this area.

For houses priced over 10 million baht, the Ring Road-Bang Na area had the highest number of units sold at launch in the second quarter of 2025, with 23 units sold, accounting for 30% of the 76 units available for sale, consisting of semi-detached houses priced between 10-30 million baht per unit. This was followed by the Sathu Pradit area, which sold 20 units, accounting for 45% of the 44 units launched, consisting of townhouses priced between 10-30 million baht, semi-detached houses, and single houses priced over 50 million baht.

“Overall, the real estate market in the first half of 2025 saw a slowdown in new project launches due to several factors, including the economic slowdown and the earthquake situation, causing real estate developers to delay their plans to launch projects in the second quarter of the year, with no new condominium projects launched in April following the earthquake. They began to resume launching new projects in May and June. Although real estate developers are expected to accelerate new project launches in the second half of 2025, overall, the number of new project launches in 2025 is likely to be less than or close to that of 2024,” Mr. Prabhan concluded.