Globlex Securities (GBS) assesses that the Thai stock market in the first month of 2024 will continue to fluctuate in a sideways manner, supported by the market reducing expectations for the FED to cut interest rates in the meeting on March 19-20 to 70% from the previous 76.9%. Additionally, there are no new domestic factors, leading to an index range of 1,390-1,440 points. The investment strategy suggests focusing on stocks that will benefit from the cabinet's approval of the 2024 budget framework of 3.6 trillion baht, particularly in the construction sector, including CK, STEC, CIVIL, and UNIQ.

Ms. Wilasinee Boonmasungtrong, Senior Director of Research at Globlex Securities Co., Ltd. (GBS), predicts that the Thai stock market will likely continue to fluctuate sideways, supported by the U.S. Labor Department's release of a lower-than-expected PPI index, which has led the FedWatch Tool to indicate a 70% chance that the FED will reduce interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 5.00-5.25% in the upcoming meeting, down from 79.5% last week. Meanwhile, there are still no new supporting factors domestically, compounded by negative issues such as the postponement of the digital wallet board meeting, resulting in an index range of 1,390-1,440 points.

The decline in China's CPI and PPI indicates that China is still facing deflationary pressures while its economic recovery remains weak, despite multiple government stimulus measures. Recently, the People's Bank of China maintained its policy interest rate at 2.50%, contrary to market expectations for a rate cut to stimulate the economy. Additionally, geopolitical risks persist, particularly regarding U.S. and U.K. airstrikes on Houthi rebel targets in Yemen in response to repeated attacks on commercial vessels, impacting shipping in the Red Sea.

Regarding the accumulated trading value by investor group from January 1-12, 2024, domestic institutions sold a net of 1,319.49 million baht, and foreign investors sold a net of 6,325.87 million baht, while brokerage accounts bought a net of 1,346.79 million baht, and domestic investors bought a net of 6,298.57 million baht.

Key factors to closely monitor include the financial statements of the banking sector for 2023 from January 15-19, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) announcing the industrial confidence index on January 17, and various international factors today (January 17) such as China's GDP figures for Q4 2023, the EU's December inflation report, and the U.S. retail sales, industrial production, and housing market index for December. On January 18, China will report foreign direct investment (FDI) figures for December, Japan will report machinery orders for November, and the EU will report the current account balance for November. The U.S. will report weekly unemployment claims, housing starts for December, the manufacturing index for January, and weekly oil stocks. On January 19, Japan will report December inflation, and the U.S. will report the consumer confidence index for January and December's existing home sales.

Therefore, the investment strategy recommends focusing on stocks that will benefit from the cabinet's approval of the 2024 budget framework of 3.6 trillion baht, particularly in the construction sector, including CK, STEC, CIVIL, and UNIQ.

As for the direction of gold investment, Mr. Natthawut Wongyowarak, Director of Research at Globlex Securities, predicts that gold prices this week will need to be monitored closely alongside U.S. retail sales figures and the Fed watch tool. If the market increases the likelihood of interest rate hikes, it could pressure gold prices.

The research department anticipates that gold prices may slightly decline during the week, expected to move within the range of $2,000-$2,050/oz, with a recommendation for speculative trading within this range.