Globlex Securities (GBS) assesses that the Thai stock market will consolidate this week, lacking new supportive factors. Additionally, investors are lowering their expectations for the FED to cut interest rates next year while keeping an eye on economic data reports leading up to the New Year. Therefore, they set the index range at 1,380-1,420 points and recommend an investment strategy for stocks that will be included in the SET50 and SET100 calculations for the first half of 2024.

Ms. Wilasinee Boonmasungtrong, Senior Director of Research at Globlex Securities Co., Ltd. (GBS), predicts that the Thai stock market may take a breather this week, following the trend of regional markets due to a lack of new supportive factors after a rebound at the end of last week. Investors are also monitoring the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for November, which will be reported on Friday, to assess the direction of U.S. inflation. Thus, they set the index range at 1,380-1,420 points.

Moreover, investors are reducing their expectations that the FED may cut interest rates next year after Mr. John Williams, President of the New York Fed, stated that the FED has not yet discussed any interest rate cuts. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts that U.S. GDP will slow to 1.5% in 2024, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.4% next year, up from the previous average forecast of 3.9%.

Meanwhile, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) reported a summary of accumulated trading values by investor group from January 1 to December 15, 2023, showing that domestic institutions bought a net of 75,218.10 million baht, brokerage accounts sold a net of 4,547.19 million baht, domestic investors bought a net of 121,281.26 million baht, and foreign investors sold a net of 191,952.17 million baht.

Additionally, there are factors that will impact the Thai stock market, such as in the third week, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) will announce production and export figures for automobiles, motorcycles, and automotive parts. In the fourth week, the Ministry of Commerce will report on international trade conditions, the Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) will announce the industrial production index, and the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) will report on the economic conditions. On December 28, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) will report on the Thai economy, along with various international factors such as the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting and interest rate decisions on December 19, U.S. housing starts and building permits for November, and the announcement of the consumer confidence index for December.

Therefore, it is recommended to adopt an investment strategy for stocks that will be included in the SET50 - SET100 index calculations for the first half of 2024. Stocks entering the SET50 include KCE, while those entering the SET100 include AEONTS, ICHI, ITC, M, MOSHI, RBF, SAPPE, SISB, TKN, TOA. Investors should also be cautious of selling pressure on stocks that will exit the SET50 index, such as TIDLOR, and from the SET100, including ACE, CKP, MBK, PSL, PTG, SABUY, STEC, THANI, TIPH, TQM.

Regarding the direction of gold investment, Mr. Natthawut Wongyowarak, Director of Research at Globlex Securities, assesses that gold prices this week should be monitored closely alongside the announcement of consumer confidence and Q4 GDP figures from the U.S., which may come in close to expectations, supporting gold prices at high levels.

The research department anticipates that gold prices will be supported by the declining trend of U.S. 10-year bond yields and the dollar index. It is expected that gold prices may fluctuate within the range of $2,015-$2,045/oz, with a recommendation to trade within the provided range.