One of the ever-challenging questions is whether the housing market in Bangkok and its surrounding areas will be sustainable. In other words, can the housing market continue to grow indefinitely? <\/span><\/strong><\/p>

To answer this question, we must first consider the population figures. It is noteworthy that the population in Bangkok is approximately 5.5 million, with some fluctuations but no clear growth trend. While some communities may see a decline in population, new community developments compensate for this. Conversely, the population in the provinces surrounding Bangkok also stands at around 5.5 million, with a growth rate of 1.5% per year. The combined population of Bangkok and its surrounding provinces can be considered as a whole, and the annual population increase in the surrounding provinces can be regarded as the growth rate for the overall Bangkok metropolitan area. Research conducted by the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration about ten years ago indicated that the hidden population in both Bangkok and its vicinity was about 50% of the official population. Therefore, the total population of Bangkok and its surrounding areas could reach up to 16.5 million.

The above figures may lead us to understand the supply of housing in the outer provinces. <\/span>If we simply consider single-family homes and townhomes as products for first-time homebuyers, the increase in population in the outer provinces will lead to demand and supply for housing with land for first-time buyers, as it is impossible to find such products in Bangkok itself due to the high land prices that prevent affordable housing supply from emerging in that area.<\/span> In this case, there will be a demand for about 40,000 units per year, which is just one segment of first-time homebuyers. Another segment will be those looking to purchase condominiums in Bangkok, as even though condominiums in the outskirts are cheaper, they may not be convenient for commuting to the central business district of Bangkok. The number of affordable condominiums in Bangkok may be around 30,000 units. The combination of single-family homes with land and condominiums totals about 70,000 units, which is considered housing for first-time buyers.

In Bangkok and its vicinity, the number of homes sold each year is approximately 100,000 units. Therefore, the remaining 30,000 units after accounting for first-time buyers will be referred to as the demand from second and third-time homebuyers who wish to upgrade from their current residences, which may be too small or not aligned with their economic status.

At this point, it is evident that the source of growth in the housing market comes from the continuous growth of the population both in Bangkok itself and in the surrounding provinces. The figures in the first paragraph indicate that we cannot expect growth within Bangkok itself, but there is hope in the surrounding provinces. However, for what reasons will the population in these neighboring provinces continue to increase? It is the economic potential of Bangkok and its vicinity that should grow to attract youth from provinces across the country, seeking better opportunities for a brighter future. This is the key. Considering past, present, and future trends, it seems that Bangkok will fulfill this objective. However, there are no guarantees for that.

Although the population growth in the outer provinces statistically shows that the population in each younger age group decreases by about 6-7% compared to the next older age group, for instance, the population aged 30-39 will be about 6-7% less than that of the 40-49 age group, this younger age group will be the demand for first, second, or third homes in the next 10 years.

The above facts indicate that the demand for housing will decrease, but this may not significantly impact market participants or developers, as typically, market fluctuations from other factors affecting the housing market may be larger and overshadow the decrease, making it difficult to see a clear impact. However, the actual decrease may affect the market for at least the next 20 years.

Overall, whether the demand for the housing market will be sustainable depends on whether Bangkok and its vicinity can provide sufficient economic opportunities for people from all over Thailand to migrate in. In other words, the population growth in the outer provinces should continue to grow at no less than 1.5% per year.