Dr. Wichai Wiratthakhan, Inspector of the Government Housing Bank and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center stated that in 2023, the real estate market is still sluggish, with an estimated 100,000 new units expected to launch throughout the year, comprising approximately 58,000 low-rise units and around 40,000 high-rise units. In the first quarter of 2023, the total number of allocation permits issued nationwide was 15,267 units, a decrease of -13.6%. Townhouses accounted for the highest number of permits issued at 6,290 units (41.2%), followed by single-detached houses at 4,992 units (32.7%) and duplex houses at 3,233 units (21.2%).

Compared to the same period last year, duplex houses grew by 2.9%, while single-detached houses decreased by -17.8% and townhouses dropped by -10.4%. The increase in duplex houses indicates a shift by developers focusing more on selling duplexes to cater to customers who need more living space but have limited budgets, as duplexes can meet these needs effectively and align with housing development costs. Additionally, new launches for homes priced at 15 million baht and above saw an increase of 180.9%.

In the condominium sector, the first quarter of 2023 saw 7,260 new units launched, a significant decrease of -61.5%. Studio units dropped by -68.3%, while the price range of 1.51 – 1.75 million baht increased by 233.3%. The price range of 1.751 – 2.00 million baht rose by 91.6%, and the range of 1.251 – 1.50 million baht increased by 34.1%. However, two-bedroom units overall decreased by -83.0%, with declines across all price levels.

“The real estate market in 2023 still faces several negative factors, particularly the cancellation of the relaxed LTV measures by the Bank of Thailand, the high household debt ratio nearing 90% of GDP, and rising interest rates, which will reduce repayment capacity, impacting sales, transfers, and loan disbursements,”

However, after the elections, concerns will likely shift to the budget. If the formation of the government is delayed, it will affect the approval of next year's budget, which is crucial for Thailand's GDP growth, potentially posing risks to the business sector. The real estate sector needs to monitor closely to assess how the economy will trend this year to evaluate the impact on businesses moving forward.

Regarding property transfers nationwide in the first quarter of 2023, there were 84,619 units transferred, a decrease of -0.8%, with a transfer value of 241,167 million baht, an increase of 7.9%. Low-rise units accounted for 60,950 units, down -6.8%, with a value of 170,686 million baht, a decrease of -0.3%. Meanwhile, condominium transfers totaled 23,669 units, an increase of 18.7%, with a value of 70,481 million baht, up 34.7%.

For condominium transfers by foreigners in the first quarter of 2023, there were 3,775 units transferred, valued at 17,128 million baht. Chinese buyers continued to dominate, with 1,747 units transferred, accounting for 46% and a value of 8,191 million baht, representing 48% of the total value of foreign property transfers. Notably, this year, Russian transfers increased to 10%, valued at 1,364 million baht, while buyers from Myanmar showed a continuous trend in purchasing Thai properties, with a transfer share of 2% valued at 497 million baht in the first quarter of 2023.

The foreign market this year remains interesting, as evidenced by continuous property transfers in key tourist cities such as Chonburi, Bangkok, Phuket, Hua Hin, and Rayong. Some locations still have demand exceeding the 49% foreign sales ratio. In the past, REIC has proposed to the government to increase the foreign sales ratio in popular locations to stimulate property sales and attract funds into the country through proper transaction systems, helping to distribute income to local residents.

Regarding new loan disbursements nationwide, the first quarter of 2023 saw a value of 152,817 million baht, an increase of 6.4% compared to 143,571 million baht in the first quarter of 2022. The total outstanding loan value nationwide was 4,775,515 million baht, up 5.2% compared to 4,539,391 million baht the previous year.