<\/strong><\/span>"Lumpini Wisdom" <\/span>indicates that real estate developers are accelerating the launch of residential projects, including condominiums and houses, in Bangkok and its vicinity during the first half of 2022, resulting in a growth rate of up to 121% compared to the same period in 2021. There is a trend of continuous launches expected in the second half of 2022, with an anticipated annual growth of no less than 20-25%, despite the economy showing signs of slowing down in the latter half of the year.

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Mr. Prabhan Sak Raksaiwan, Managing Director of Lumpini Wisdom and Solutions Co., Ltd., a research and development company under L.P.N. Development Public Company Limited (LPN),  "Lumpini Wisdom" <\/strong>discussed the trend of new residential project launches in the Bangkok and surrounding areas in 2022, stating that real estate developers continue to launch residential projects, both condominiums and houses, consistently from the beginning of 2022 to the present. In the first half of 2022 (January-June 2022), there were 163 new projects launched, totaling 51,946 units with a value of 188,373 million baht, representing an increase of 121% and 45%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2021.

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Among the newly launched projects, there were 48 condominium projects, totaling 30,579 units with a value of 78,078 million baht, representing an increase of 231% and 40%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2021, with an average sales rate of 33% per project per month. Meanwhile, 115 housing projects were launched, totaling 21,367 units with a value of 110,295 million baht, an increase of 49% and 48%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2021, with an average sales rate of 12% per project per month.

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The housing type that received a positive market response is townhouses priced between 2-5 million baht, which have the highest number of launched units and sold units among all housing types, with an average sales rate of 12% per project per month. The areas with the highest launches of townhouses are in the Rangsit-Lam Luk Ka area, followed by Phetkasem-Om Noi and Srinakarin-Bang Na-Suvarnabhumi. Meanwhile, twin houses priced between 3-6 million baht have an average sales rate of 11%, with the highest cumulative launches in the Bang Yai-Ratchaphruek area, followed by Bang Na-Trad-Suvarnabhumi, and single houses priced between 6-10 million baht have an average sales rate of 13%, with the highest cumulative launches in the Bang Yai-Ratchaphruek area, followed by Pracha Uthit-Phutthabucha.

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Meanwhile, the trend of launching residential projects in the second half of 2022, according to a survey by "Lumpini Wisdom," indicates that real estate developers still plan to continuously launch new projects despite the economic slowdown expected in the latter half of 2022 due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which has driven up oil prices and the prices of consumer goods. Global inflation has risen, with inflation in Thailand reaching 7.66% in June 2022, the highest in 13 years, resulting in an average inflation rate of 5.61% for the first half of 2022, causing construction material prices to rise by no less than 5%. Nevertheless, real estate developers continue to launch projects in Bangkok and its vicinity, especially condominiums, as they have delayed project launches since 2020-2021, leading to a decrease in available products in the market. There is a necessity to launch new condominium projects to build a customer base and revenue for 2022-2027, as condominium projects require 18-24 months for construction and delivery.

However, the uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly the Omicron variant BA.4-BA.5, and the economic volatility caused by the Russia-Ukraine war affecting oil prices and consumer goods, as well as Thailand's export and tourism sectors, have led "Lumpini Wisdom" to assess the feasibility of the real estate market in Bangkok and its vicinity, considering economic growth, the war situation, and the COVID-19 pandemic as three scenarios (3-Scenario) as follows:

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-Best Case: Economic growth at 3.5-4%, average annual inflation below 5%, the Russia-Ukraine war situation eases, oil prices below 100 USD/barrel. The launch of new real estate projects in Bangkok and its vicinity will be between 90,000-102,000 units, valued at approximately 333,000-408,000 million baht, representing a growth rate of 25-54% compared to 2021, a growth rate similar to that of 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.

-Base Case: Economic growth at 2.5-3%, average annual inflation at 5-7%, the Russia-Ukraine war situation eases in Q4 of the year, oil prices not exceeding 120 USD/barrel. The launch of new real estate projects in Bangkok and its vicinity will be between 78,000-84,000 units, valued at approximately 288,000-336,000 million baht, representing a growth rate of 9-27% compared to 2021.

-Worst Case: Economic growth below 2%, average annual inflation above 7%, the Russia-Ukraine war situation remains unresolved, oil prices above 120 USD/barrel. The launch of new real estate projects in Bangkok and its vicinity will be between 60,000-72,000 units, valued at approximately 240,000-288,000 million baht, representing a growth rate of 5% to possibly negative 10%, depending on the situation, compared to 2021.

“From the three scenarios, "Lumpini Wisdom" expects that the likelihood of new project launches in Bangkok and its vicinity will grow according to the normal growth scenario (Base Case), as real estate developers need to launch new projects, especially residential condominiums, to compensate for the reduced inventory and increase the supply in the market to generate future revenue for the organization, while the demand for housing remains, particularly for properties priced below 3 million baht per unit.” <\/strong><\/span><\/p>