"Real Estate Information Center, Government Housing Bank" reports that the Current Situation Index for residential property developers in Bangkok and its vicinity shows that the overall index for the fourth quarter of 2021 is at 52.0, an increase compared to the previous quarter, and is above the neutral level of 50.0.

This indicates that developers' confidence in their business has increased for the first time after the index had been below the neutral level for 10 consecutive quarters. Meanwhile, confidence for the next six months is at 62.0, up from the previous quarter's 57.2, with nearly all factors showing improvement, attributed to the continuation of measures to reduce transfer and mortgage fees.

Dr. Vichai Viratakphan, Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center, Government Housing Bank stated that the increase in this quarter's index is supported by the Bank of Thailand's announcement to temporarily relax LTV measures for loan contracts made from October 20, 2021, to December 31, 2022, to help support the Thai economy affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, the government's policy to open the country in early December 2021 is expected to positively impact the return of foreign homebuyers, which is a significant positive factor for the real estate sector, leading to increased confidence among developers.

The current confidence index for Listed Companies in the fourth quarter of 2021 is at 56.3, which is above the neutral level of 50 and higher than the previous quarter's index of 50.0, indicating increased confidence in the current business environment due to rising sales, with an index of 62.5, higher than the previous quarter, and the launch of new projects or phases with an index of 60.3, also higher than the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, the confidence index for Non-listed Companies in the fourth quarter of 2021 is at 45.5, an increase from the previous quarter's 42.7, with an upward trend in various aspects similar to that of Listed Companies, as evidenced by sales with an index of 48.1, higher than the previous quarter, and the launch of new projects or phases with an index of 47.1, also higher than the previous quarter.

However, the index for Non-listed Companies remains below the neutral level of 50 in all aspects, indicating a low level of confidence in the current business environment, significantly lower than that of Listed Companies (see Table 1 and Chart 1).

 

The confidence index for residential property developers in Bangkok and its vicinity for the next six months (Expectations Index) is at 62.0, up from the previous quarter's 57.2, with nearly all factors showing improvement, except for the cost factor for developers, which is below the neutral level of 50.0.

            This reflects that developers have a positive outlook on the development of the real estate business in the next six months, resulting from the government's announcement on December 21, 2021, to extend the reduction of transfer and mortgage fees for residences priced up to 3 million baht, now including second-hand homes, which was previously limited to new homes until December 31, 2022. Developers anticipate that if the country opens up to more foreign tourists, it will positively impact the overall economy, leading to a return of purchasing power to normal levels. This factor contributes to increased confidence in the development of the real estate business in the next six months.

For Listed Companies, the confidence index for the next six months is at 67.4, up from the previous quarter's 62.9, above the neutral level of 50.0, with significant increases in all factors.

Meanwhile, Non-listed Companies have an index of 54.0, up from the previous quarter's 48.7, also above the neutral level of 50.0, with increases in all factors as well. It is clear that both Non-listed and Listed Companies are beginning to have more confidence in the next six months (see Table 2 and Chart 2).