Real Estate Information Center, Government Housing Bank has revealed that a survey of the housing market in the northern region shows a significant slowdown, with the supply of new units for sale decreasing by 56.6% and the total value dropping by 61.2%. Notably, new condominium projects have decreased by as much as 89.9%, indicating that developers are delaying new project developments, particularly in Phitsanulok and Chiang Mai, which saw declines of over 72% and 65.1% respectively.

 

Dr. Vichai Viratakpan, Inspector of the Government Housing Bank and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center (REIC) stated that in the first half of 2021, there were only 869 new housing projects entering the market, a decrease of 56.6%, with a total value of 2.457 billion baht, down 61.2% compared to the same period last year.

Chiang Mai had the highest number of new housing units entering the market, followed by Chiang Rai, Nakhon Sawan, Tak, and Phitsanulok. This resulted in a total housing supply available for sale in the northern region of 17,666 units, which is an increase of 1.9%, with a total value of 65.408 billion baht, up 4.3%.

However, when examining the growth rates in detail, it was found that Phitsanulok experienced the most significant slowdown in new projects, with a decline of 72%, affecting the overall development of housing projects. In Chiang Mai, the decline was 65.1%, with new condominium developments decreasing by as much as 97.1%, while housing projects dropped by 11.1%. Chiang Rai saw a decrease of 19.7% in the development of housing projects. In Tak, there was a slowdown of about 3.2% in new units for sale, affecting the overall development of housing projects.

 

The Real Estate Information Center estimates that approximately 2,939 new housing units will enter the market in 2021, with a total value of about 8.644 billion baht. This is divided into:

- Approximately 2,330 housing projects, with a total value of about 7.003 billion baht.

- Approximately 609 condominium projects, with a total value of about 1.641 billion baht.

          It is expected that in the second half of 2021, the growth rate of new housing units for sale will have a smaller negative rate compared to the first half of the year, with a decrease of about 5.8% compared to the same period last year, while the total value is expected to drop by about 20.7%.

 

For the outlook in 2022, the Data Center expects that approximately 4,412 new housing units will enter the northern market, with a total value of about 13.095 billion baht. This is divided into:

- Approximately 3,492 housing projects, with a total value of about 10.441 billion baht.

- Approximately 920 condominium projects, with a total value of about 2.654 billion baht.

            In the first half of 2022, the growth rate of new housing units for sale is expected to increase by 148.1% compared to the first half of 2021, with an additional 9% growth expected in the second half of 2022. The total value in the first half of 2022 is expected to increase by about 158.6% and then slow down in the second half of 2022.

 

As for the new units sold, the overall picture in the northern region shows a decrease in both the number of units and value, with approximately 1,963 units sold, a decrease of 34.6%, and a total value of 7.102 billion baht, down 33.4%. The most significant declines were seen in Chiang Mai, followed by Chiang Rai, while Tak and Phitsanulok experienced an increase in sales, albeit from a low base compared to the same period last year.

This has resulted in approximately 15,703 units remaining for sale in the market, with a total value of about 58.306 billion baht. This includes 14,003 housing units valued at 53.594 billion baht and 1,700 condominium units valued at 4.712 billion baht, both increasing in number and value by 9.6% and 12% respectively.

The increase is seen in Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, and Phitsanulok, while Tak has seen a decrease in units available for sale, with an increase of 15.1% in remaining housing units, while condominium units available for sale decreased by 21.2%. This is a result of developers adjusting by reducing the number of new condominium projects while increasing the development of housing projects in the market.

  • Chiang Mai: 9,213 units remaining for sale, valued at 37.049 billion baht.
  • Chiang Rai: 2,749 units remaining for sale, valued at 10.746 billion baht.
  • Phitsanulok: 2,589 units remaining for sale, valued at 7.585 billion baht.
  • Tak and Nakhon Sawan have fewer than 600 units remaining for sale each.

 Most of these are housing projects, and the absorption rate is expected to improve starting from the first half of 2022 onwards.

Regarding new sales, the Data Center estimates that in 2021, the northern housing market will have approximately 4,597 new sales, with a total value of about 16.049 billion baht, divided into:

- Approximately 3,627 housing projects, with a total value of about 13.277 billion baht.

- Approximately 970 condominium projects, with a total value of about 2.772 billion baht.

 

            It is expected that in the second half of 2021, new sales will exceed those in the first half, with a growth rate of about 27.2% compared to the same period last year, while the total value is expected to increase by about 24.2%. In 2022, it is projected that there will be approximately 4,990 new sales, with a total value of 16.365 billion baht. In the first half of 2022, the northern housing market is expected to see improved sales compared to the first half of 2021, around 26.5%, and is expected to slow down by 4.9% in the second half of 2022.

            In the first half of 2022, the total value is expected to increase by about 15.4% and slow down by 8.7% in the second half of 2022, based on the assumption that Thailand can distribute vaccines effectively and that the COVID-19 situation improves.

            The Data Center is confident that the situation for new units for sale in the northern region will improve compared to the first half of 2021, especially in Chiang Mai, which has high potential for both long-term living and tourism.