Summary of the Thai Baht's movements

  • The Thai Baht continues to weaken, having reached its lowest level in three years at 33.49 Baht per US Dollar during the week. The Baht depreciated early in the week amid concerns over the domestic COVID outbreak, coupled with support for the US Dollar from statements by Fed officials indicating the possibility of gradually reducing the monthly QE amount within this year. However, the Baht briefly recovered mid-week due to profit-taking on the US Dollar before weakening again towards the end of the week as COVID risks remained high, while the US Dollar received further support from labor market data reflecting ongoing recovery.
  • On Friday (August 13), the Baht was at 33.35 Baht per US Dollar compared to 33.36 Baht per US Dollar the previous Friday (August 6).

For the upcoming week (August 16-20), Kasikorn Bank forecasts the Baht's movement range to be 33.00-33.50 Baht per US Dollar. Meanwhile, the Kasikorn Research Center highlights key factors to monitor, including Thailand's Q2/64 GDP figures, the domestic COVID situation, and the BOT MPC Minutes from August 4. Important US economic data includes retail sales, industrial production, July housing starts, the New York Fed manufacturing survey, the Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey, and the August housing market index, along with the FOMC minutes from July 27-28. Additionally, the market is also awaiting Japan and Eurozone's Q2/64 GDP data, as well as China's LPR interest rate and July economic figures such as retail sales and industrial production.

Summary of the Thai Stock Market Movements

  • Thai stocks reduced their gains towards the end of the week, with the SET index closing at 1,528.32 points, up 0.43% from the previous week, while the average daily trading value was 83,321.11 million Baht, an increase of 13.53% from the prior week. The mai index fell by 4.34%, closing at 488.32 points.
  • Thai stocks rose in the early to mid-week, following the trend of regional markets, amid expectations of potential monetary policy easing by the Chinese central bank, supported by buying from institutional investors, especially in the banking, energy, and technology sectors. However, Thai stocks later declined amid concerns over the ongoing and potentially prolonged domestic COVID situation, as well as domestic political factors.


For the upcoming week (August 16-20), Kasikorn Securities Co., Ltd. anticipates that the Thai stock index will have support at 1,513 and 1,500 points, while resistance is at 1,540 and 1,555 points, respectively. The Kasikorn Research Center assesses key factors to monitor, including Thailand's Q2/64 GDP figures, the COVID situation both domestically and internationally, as well as domestic political issues. Important US economic data includes retail sales, industrial production, and July new housing starts, along with the Fed meeting minutes. Other international factors include Japan and Eurozone's Q2/64 GDP, Japan's June industrial production, Eurozone's July consumer price index, the August LPR interest rate setting, and China's July economic data.


 

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