The Real Estate Information Center of the Government Housing Bank reports the confidence index of residential development businesses in Bangkok and its vicinity. In the second quarter of 2021, the overall business confidence index stood at 46.4, showing a slight increase compared to the previous quarter, but still below the neutral level of 50.0 for nine consecutive quarters.

            Meanwhile, the confidence index for the second half of 2021 has decreased, with both listed and non-listed companies showing reduced confidence, particularly among non-listed companies, which have significantly lower confidence regarding sales, performance, investment, and new project launches.

Dr. Vichai Viratakpan, Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center at the Government Housing Bank, stated that the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which remains uncontrolled as of the second quarter of 2021, has impacted the Thai economy, causing a slower recovery than previously anticipated. This has led to concerns among residential development operators about the effects of the situation both currently and in the future.

This has affected the current confidence of listed companies in the stock market, which recorded a confidence index of 51.1 in the second quarter of 2021, above the neutral level of 50 and higher than the previous quarter's index of 49.4, indicating that public companies have confidence in their current business environment. This is attributed to increased sales, new investments, and the launch of new projects or phases, particularly in the housing sector to replace sold units and compensate for the decline in new condominium projects.

In contrast, non-listed companies have a confidence index of 39.3, down from 41.7 in the previous quarter, and still below the neutral level of 50, indicating a lack of confidence in the current business environment across all factors.

 

 

Regarding the confidence index of residential development businesses in Bangkok and its vicinity over the next six months, it has been found that the overall confidence index is 50.5, significantly down from 58.8 in the previous quarter. Although the index remains above the neutral level of 50.0, there has been a considerable decline across all factors. This reflects that operators still have a slightly positive outlook on real estate development over the next six months, possibly due to the government's announcement of plans to reopen the country within 120 days, around October 2021. If this plan is realized, it could help revive the country's economy, but concerns remain regarding the control of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.

When categorizing operators by company type, it is found that listed companies have a confidence index of 55.7 for the next six months, down from 63.6 in the previous quarter. Although this is still above the neutral level of 50.0, there is a noticeable decline across all factors.

 

Meanwhile, non-listed companies have a confidence index of 42.7, down from 51.5 in the previous quarter, showing a significant decline across all factors. It is evident that operators in this group lack confidence in their business prospects over the next six months more than public companies, which may be due to disadvantages in investment for new project development or expansion phases, as well as buyer confidence in the reputation of public companies, affecting opportunities and competition in the market, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Source: Real Estate Information Center, Government Housing Bank