The Research and Innovation Development Center of the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) has indicated that the new outbreak of COVID-19 has led to an increase in agricultural product prices in January 2021, including jasmine rice, sticky rice, and animal feed corn, while raw sugar, rubber, cassava, palm oil, pork, and vannamei shrimp are expected to decrease in price.

Mr. Somkiat Kimahwa, Deputy Manager of BAAC, revealed that the BAAC Research and Innovation Development Center forecasts agricultural product prices for January 2021, highlighting that products likely to see price increases include:

15% Moisture Paddy Rice is priced at 8,542 - 8,865 THB/ton, an increase of 2.20 - 6.07% from the previous month due to flooding in the Philippines, the world's largest rice importer, which may increase demand for Thai white rice.

Jasmine Paddy Rice is priced at 11,683 - 11,726 THB/ton, an increase of 5.38 - 5.76% from the previous month as the government has a loan scheme to delay the sale of paddy rice from the 2020/21 crop year, allowing farmers to store their rice and benefit from storage fees of 1,500 THB/ton.

Sticky Rice is priced at 10,325 - 10,651 THB/ton, an increase of 0.03 - 3.19% from the previous month as it is the end of the harvest season, leading to reduced market supply.

Animal Feed Corn with Moisture Not Exceeding 14.5% is priced at 7.91 - 7.99 THB/kg, an increase of 0.50 - 1.50% from the previous month due to the end of the rainy season corn harvest, resulting in lower market supply, while demand for animal feed is expected to rise with the growth of meat exports.

 

Products expected to see price decreases include:

Raw Sugar in New York is priced at 13.79 - 14.22 cents/pound (9.19 - 9.48 THB/kg), a decrease of 1.50 - 4.50% from the previous month due to forecasts of increased sugar production in Brazil from higher rainfall, alleviating drought concerns, along with India's government announcing subsidies for sugar producers to export up to 6 million tons, increasing global sugar stocks.

Grade 3 Raw Rubber Sheets are priced at 56.85 - 57.15 THB/kg, a decrease of 0.10 - 0.63% from the previous month as rubber stock in China is expected to rise, coupled with falling Tokyo futures prices and a strengthening Thai baht. However, rubber prices may be supported by increased demand for rubber gloves due to the new wave of COVID-19 and rising oil prices.

Cassava is priced at 2.00 - 2.06 THB/kg, a decrease of 0.48 - 3.38% from the previous month as it is the peak harvest season, with an expected production of 18.47 million tons from January to March 2021, accounting for 61.81% of the annual yield.

Palm Oil is priced at 6.80 - 6.95 THB/kg, a decrease of 0.57 - 2.72% from the previous month due to anticipated lower demand for palm oil for biodiesel production amid concerns over the new COVID-19 outbreak affecting energy use during the New Year festival. However, if the government can control the outbreak, prices may rebound.

Pork is priced at 68.83 - 70.00 THB/kg, a decrease of 0.86 - 2.52% from the previous month due to cooler weather in major pork production areas like Ratchaburi and Chiang Mai, leading to increased supply, while the new COVID-19 outbreak has led to lockdown measures in high-risk provinces, potentially reducing demand from restaurants and the tourism sector.

Vannamei Shrimp is priced at 140.00 - 145.00 THB/kg, a decrease of 3.97 - 7.28% from the previous month due to the lockdown situation in Samut Sakhon. If the situation does not improve, shrimp farmers may need to find outlets for their products, leading to downward pressure on prices, along with concerns over seafood safety potentially reducing market demand.