Controlling 'Migrant Labor': A Double-Edged Sword for Wealthy Nations as the U.S. Plans to Accept No More Than 15,000 Immigrants Next Year, the Lowest Number on Record

The shortage of migrant labor is increasingly posing risks to wealthy countries, which are experiencing declining birth rates. Today, the labor shortage is threatening global economic growth, especially as the COVID-19 pandemic has restricted labor mobility.

Observers predict that the COVID-19 outbreak and the rising anti-immigrant sentiment in advanced economies are creating challenges for global migration trends this year, further increasing risks for countries with low birth rates, where the economy may slow due to a lack of labor in the manufacturing sector.

On September 27, a Swiss referendum rejected a proposal to liberalize the movement of labor within the European Union (EU). The Swiss People's Party, a right-wing party, proposed this idea but faced opposition from various groups fearing it would negatively impact an economy already battered by the pandemic. Regardless of the outcome, the issue of whether to accept immigrants or not remains a classic dilemma in global history.

For instance, in the U.S., the passage of the Chinese Exclusion Act in 1882 was driven by fears among eligible voters that immigrant labor would take their jobs. Later, in 1965, U.S. immigration laws abolished quotas and opened the doors to immigrants. However, during Donald Trump's presidency, the U.S. tightened its immigration policies again. The Trump administration announced that the U.S. would accept no more than 15,000 immigrants next year, marking a historic low, even as global displacement issues continue to rise. This move was seen as a hardline stance by Trump in the final months before the election.

The U.S. State Department announced this figure just hours before the start of the 2021 fiscal year, representing a reduction from the maximum cap of 18,000 last year and a significant drop from over 100,000 during former President Barack Obama's administration.

Previously, Trump, who campaigned on an anti-immigrant platform, suspended all refugee admissions for several months this year, citing the COVID-19 outbreak. The State Department explained that the reduction in the number of immigrants allowed into the country was because the U.S. wanted to help displaced individuals stay closer to home until they could return.

The U.S. State Department also stated that Trump's proposal for next year reflects the U.S.'s commitment to assisting the most vulnerable populations in the world while fulfilling its primary duty to protect and serve Americans.

However, Krish Vignarajah, president of Lutheran Immigration and Refugee Service, a government-funded agency that assists immigrants in settling in the country, argued that the decision to reduce the number of permitted immigrants is a complete abandonment of the country's moral obligations and values.

The COVID-19 pandemic, which has led many countries to close their borders, has resulted in labor shortages. For example, in the U.S., the agricultural sectors in Texas and Oklahoma faced severe labor shortages during this year's harvest season. Since Trump's administration began, family-run farms have increasingly faced bankruptcy. During the agricultural harvest season starting in July 2019, 580 farms filed for bankruptcy, an 8% increase from the previous year.

The American Farm Bureau Federation reported that labor accounts for about 35-48% of production costs. When there is a labor shortage due to the lack of migrant workers, the agricultural sector faces even more significant challenges, especially since current visa regulations only allow 4% of necessary migrant labor to work in agriculture.

According to United Nations data, in 2019, the population of advanced economies increased by 7% or 82 million people since 2000, with 35 million of these being migrant workers from emerging economies. In that year, the number of migrants from emerging economies entering advanced economies was 91.7 million.

The UN estimates that without migrants, the population in advanced economies will begin to decline starting next year, with projections indicating that by 2030, the population will decrease by nearly 24 million, from the current 1.3 billion to 1.2 billion by 2093.

Research by Professor Stein Walseth from the University of Washington indicates that by 2100, birth rates in most countries will fall below 2.1, meaning the population will decline. He also noted that implementing liberal immigration policies could help alleviate the problem of low birth rates and stimulate economic growth.

In Japan, where migrants make up only 2% of the population and birth rates are low, labor shortages are becoming a pressing issue. In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel has recognized the importance of this issue, stating, "Without skilled labor participating in the economy, businesses in Germany will never succeed."

SOURCE : www.bangkokbiznews.com