Research predicts that in 80 years, over 23 countries worldwide, including Thailand, South Korea, Italy, Japan, Spain, and Portugal, will see their populations decline by more than half. Notably, India will become the only country with a population exceeding 1 billion, making it the most populous nation, followed by Nigeria, which will experience growth.

News about the COVID-19 virus has overshadowed research findings predicting that the populations of Thailand and several other countries will continue to decline, potentially falling to less than half in the next 80 years. This decline is not due to deadly viruses like COVID-19 or the Spanish flu from 100 years ago, but rather other factors.

Researchers at Washington State University suggest that factors contributing to the population decline include women choosing to have fewer children, dropping from an average of 4.7 children 70 years ago to just 1.7 in 80 years. This change is attributed to higher education levels among women, increased participation in the workforce, and better access to contraception.

The research indicates that the global population will continue to rise from approximately 7.7 billion today to about 9.7 billion in the next 25 years, before gradually decreasing to around 8.8 billion in 55 years. Countries expected to see their populations decline by at least half include 23 nations, including Thailand, South Korea, Italy, Japan, Spain, and Portugal.

China's population will continue to grow for a while, reaching around 1.4 billion, before decreasing to about half. By that time, India will be the largest country in the world, being the only nation with a population over 1 billion, followed by Nigeria, which will continue to grow towards nearly 900 million in the next 80 years. Similarly, Nigeria, located south of the Sahara Desert, will see population growth contrary to most countries.

It is well-known that many countries have not seen population growth for a long time, and some have already begun to decline. This trend has prompted several countries to implement various policies aimed at preventing population decline, which would also reduce their tax base and lead to a shortage of caregivers for the aging population.

So far, these policies have had limited success, whether through incentives for women to have more children or by opening borders to accept immigrants. The latter policy may be difficult to sustain widely, as most countries are experiencing population declines, except for the southern part of Africa, where many countries are not welcoming the predominantly Black population, even if not explicitly stated. Researchers therefore recommend that countries urgently consider how to address this issue seriously starting today.

Working without retirement could help to some extent, but when individuals reach an age where they can no longer work, finding caregivers will become a significant issue in a society with more elderly than young people. New technologies may provide some assistance, but they will not always be a solution in every case.

From the perspective of natural resources and ecosystems, a decline in the global population could be beneficial. However, this issue must also consider the increase in population up to around 9.7 billion before it decreases, while most people continue to strive to use resources or consume more in the name of development, despite these two factors having a significant impact on ecosystems. Yet, some countries are adjusting policies to reduce environmental conservation measures, led by the United States, which consumes the most natural resources.

Current significant events related to the COVID-19 virus can be viewed as nature responding through a deadly virus. The fact that COVID-19 disproportionately affects the elderly, leading to higher mortality rates among older individuals, could be seen as nature offering a solution for cases where humans have an excessive number of elderly individuals relative to the tax base and insufficient caregivers.

Indeed, while the COVID-19 virus may suggest a path forward without requiring significant behavioral changes from humans, will this be a policy that society generally adopts? It seems unlikely. However, if humanity does not seriously change its consumption behavior regarding resource use, nature will inevitably retaliate and punish us, as we are currently witnessing.

SOURCE : www.bangkokbiznews.com