The latest study indicates that by the year 2643, the global population will reach 8.8 billion, which is 2 billion less than the United Nations' projections. Meanwhile, Thailand's population is expected to decrease by at least 'half.' The decline in the working-age population poses economic challenges for many countries.

A study by an international team of researchers published in The Lancet yesterday (July 15) found that by the end of this century, 183 out of 195 countries will have birth rates below the replacement level necessary to maintain their populations. More than 20 countries, including Japan, Spain, Italy, Thailand, Portugal, South Korea, and Poland, will see their populations decrease by at least half. China's population is projected to drop significantly from 1.4 billion today to 730 million in 80 years, while the sub-Saharan region's population is expected to triple to around 3 billion, with Nigeria alone increasing to nearly 800 million by 2643, second only to India, which will have a population of 1.1 billion.

“This forecast suggests good news for the environment, as food production systems will be less strained, carbon emissions will decrease, and it presents significant economic opportunities for many regions in sub-Saharan Africa. However, most countries outside Africa will experience a decline in their workforce, leading to an inverted population pyramid, which will have negative economic repercussions,” said Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, in an interview with AFP.

For high-income countries facing this issue, the best solutions to maintain population levels and economic growth will involve flexible immigration policies and social policies that support families wishing to have children.

“However, in facing the problem of declining populations, it is extremely dangerous that some countries may consider strict policies regarding access to reproductive health services, which could lead to significant harm,” Murray warned, while the report emphasized that “it is crucial for the development agenda of all governments to prioritize the rights and freedoms of women.”

Additionally, the increasing number of elderly people necessitates a complete overhaul of social services and healthcare systems.

As fertility rates decline and life expectancy increases globally, the number of children under 5 years old is expected to decrease by over 40%, from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2643. Conversely, 2.37 billion people, or more than one in four of the global population, will be aged 65 and older.

The number of people over 80 years old is projected to rise from about 140 million today to 866 million.

The sharp decline in the number and proportion of the working-age population presents a significant challenge for many countries.

Steen Emil Walshett, a professor at IHME, stated that society must grow with fewer workers and taxpayers.

For example, the working-age population in China is expected to plummet from about 950 million today to just over 350 million by the end of the century, a decrease of 62%. In contrast, India's working-age population is expected to decline less, from 762 million to 578 million. Meanwhile, Nigeria's workforce is projected to expand from 86 million today to over 450 million by 2643.

Researchers anticipate that this seismic shift will affect global order in terms of economic influence.

The report predicts that by 2593, China's GDP will surpass that of the United States but will fall back to second place by 2643. India's GDP will rise to third place, while Japan, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom will remain among the top ten largest economies in the world.

Brazil is expected to drop from its current 8th position to 13th, and Russia from 10th to 14th, while historical powers like Italy and Spain will fall from the top 15 to 25th and 28th, respectively.

Indonesia is poised to become the 12th largest economy in the world, while Nigeria, currently at 28th, shows potential to enter the top ten.

Richard Horton noted that this study highlights a fundamental shift in geopolitical power, stating, “By the end of this century, the world will have multiple power centers, with India, Nigeria, China, and the United States dominating globally.”

Until now, the United Nations (UN) has almost monopolized global population projections, estimating that by 2573, the world population will be 8.5 billion, increasing to 9.7 billion by 2593, and reaching 10.9 billion by 2643.

The differing figures between the UN and IHME depend on crucial fertility rates, known as the “replacement rate,” which is necessary to maintain a stable population. A woman must give birth to 2.1 children.

The UN's calculations assume that countries with currently low fertility rates will see an increase to about 1.8 children per woman.

“Our analysis indicates that as women become more educated and gain access to reproductive health services, they choose to have fewer children, averaging less than 1.5. Continuous global population growth throughout the century is unlikely to be a valid prediction anymore,” Murray stated.

Founded in 2007 with support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, IHME provides health statistics that are referenced globally, particularly in the Global Burden of Disease report.

SOURCE: www.bangkokbiznews.com