Ms. Wilasinee Boonmasungtrong, Director of Research at Globlex Securities Co., Ltd. (GBS), assessed the direction of the Thai stock market, stating that there is a possibility of further decline after Bangkok and its surrounding areas announced a lockdown. This has led to unemployed individuals returning to their hometowns, which may result in the spread of the virus in provincial areas. Meanwhile, the number of COVID-19 infections continues to rise, alongside increasing reports of cases and deaths in Europe and the United States, as well as ongoing reports of the first infections in various countries.

However, the delayed economic relief measures from the U.S. regarding COVID-19 have caused investors to worry that the U.S. economy is likely to be severely impacted by the virus outbreak. Economists from Morgan Stanley predict that U.S. GDP in Q2 2020 could drop by as much as 30.1%, while the President of the St. Louis Fed warned that the U.S. unemployment rate could soar to 30%. Additionally, the fluctuating price of WTI crude oil continues to pressure energy stocks, leading to an index movement range of 970-1,100 points.

Furthermore, close attention must be paid to various movements both domestically and internationally, which are largely affected by the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. On March 24, there will be a cabinet meeting expected to consider Thailand's second phase of economic stimulus measures, while Japan will release its leading economic index for January, and the EU will disclose the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for both the manufacturing and services sectors for March. The U.S. will also release its PMI for March and new home sales for February.

On March 25, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will release its meeting report, while the U.S. will disclose durable goods orders for February, the housing price index for January, and weekly oil stocks. On March 26, the Bank of England (BoE) will hold a monetary policy meeting and announce interest rate decisions, while the U.S. will release weekly unemployment claims, Q4 2019 GDP, and Q4 2019 private sector profits.

“Currently, we must acknowledge that investors are not viewing any factors as positive. For instance, the depreciation of the Thai baht will benefit exports, which turned positive with a growth of 1.51% in February 2020, even after excluding gold, oil, and weapons exports. Recently, the Bank of Thailand took action by reducing the policy interest rate by 0.25%, effective March 23, to mitigate the economic impact. Additionally, the Bank of Thailand has implemented measures to enhance liquidity in the bond market and established a fund to support fundraising, while the Ministry of Finance is preparing to propose phase 2 measures and stimulate the economy for cabinet consideration today, which has not instilled confidence in investors, leading them to reduce positions and hold cash as a priority,” said Ms. Wilasinee.

Nonetheless, the company recommends gradually accumulating stocks that benefit from the Bangkok lockdown, such as MAKRO, BJC, CPALL, TU, TFMAMA, and stocks that benefit from promoting work-from-home arrangements, such as ADVANC, INTUCH, DTAC, TRUE, JAS, JASIF, DIF, COM7, SIS, and SYNEX. As for gold prices, it is expected that gold will be pressured by selling across all assets as investors prefer to hold cash during this economic crisis, even though the Fed has continuously announced QE and reduced interest rates to 0%.

Additionally, the Fed has announced swap agreements with central banks worldwide to increase dollar liquidity. The SPDR fund has also started to sell off over 23 tons in the previous week, which has pressured gold prices. Therefore, a "buy low, sell high" strategy is recommended, with a price movement range for gold set at $1,560 to $1,607 per troy ounce.