Mr. Suphan Mongkolsuthee, President of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), revealed the results of the business confidence survey for October 2018, indicating that the industrial confidence index for October 2018 stood at 92.6, an increase from 91.5 in September. This rise in the index is attributed to overall order volumes, total sales, production levels, and business performance.

          The increase in industrial confidence in October is primarily driven by the optimism of medium and large enterprises, which saw improvements from the previous month. Positive factors include rising orders in anticipation of year-end sales, while the decline in oil prices last month has positively impacted transport costs. Additionally, October marked the end of the monsoon season, allowing for normal shipping of goods overseas. Furthermore, investment in large-scale government projects has positively affected industries related to construction.

          However, small enterprises remain concerned about rising production costs and liquidity issues in their operations. The ongoing trade war between China and the United States, along with the Thai baht appreciating more than other countries in the region and among emerging market competitors, are factors that exporters are closely monitoring.

          The confidence index for the next three months is projected to rise to 106.7, up from 106.1 in September, reflecting a positive outlook for the future. This optimism is supported by ongoing infrastructure investments and the upcoming elections in early 2019, which are expected to positively impact Thailand's economic growth in the future.

          The confidence index by business size for October 2018 shows that the index for small industries stands at 73.6, a decrease from 74.9 in September, while the index for medium and large industries is at 91.2 and 111.1, respectively, both showing increases from 90.5 and 110.8 in September.

Industries with declining confidence among small enterprises include furniture, granite and marble, and agricultural machinery.

Recommendations to the Government
· The government should maintain measures to regulate diesel fuel prices at appropriate levels to avoid impacting production and transport costs for businesses.
· It is recommended that the government leverage the trade war to attract foreign investors to the country and facilitate technology transfer to Thai workers.