The Finance Ministry maintains its GDP growth forecast for 2018 at 4.5%, driven by increased private consumption following improvements in employment and agricultural income. The upcoming elections are expected to boost cash flow into the economy, while export growth has been revised down to 8% from the previous estimate of 9.7% due to the significant impact of trade war issues.

          Mr. Varothai Kosolpisitkul, Economic Advisor at the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) revealed that the FPO continues to project Thailand's economic growth for 2018 at 4.5%, with a range of 4.3-4.7%. This marks an increase from the previous year's growth of 3.9%, as the Thai economy expanded strongly at 4.8% in the first half of the year due to rising private spending and consumption, which aligns with improved employment and farmer incomes resulting from higher agricultural output. Additionally, the export forecast for Thailand this year has been reduced to 8.0% from the previous estimate of 9.7% due to abnormal events affecting the global market, particularly the trade war between the two major powers, the United States and China.

          Factors driving Thailand's economy in 2018 include the growth of its 15 main trading partners at 4.0%. The exchange rate is expected to stabilize at 32.25 baht per US dollar, appreciating approximately 5% from the previous year. The price of Dubai crude oil is projected to rise to $71.8 per barrel from the earlier estimate of $70.1 per barrel. The policy interest rate in Thailand is expected to remain at 1.50% per year. Furthermore, the forecast for foreign tourist arrivals this year has been revised down to 38 million, or 7%, from the previous estimate of 39.5 million, or 11.1%. Revenue from tourism is expected to decrease to 2.01 trillion baht, or 9.8%, from the earlier forecast of 2.08 trillion baht, or 14.1%, due to the incident of a tourist boat sinking in Phuket and the depreciation of the Turkish lira, which has led to increased competition for Russian tourists.

          "The economy grew by as much as 4.8% in the first half of 2018, so achieving a full-year growth of 4.5% is not difficult. Whether it can exceed 4.5% depends on additional measures the government will implement, especially support for low-income individuals and the elderly. As for the 'Shop for the Nation' measures, the Ministry of Finance has not discussed such initiatives," Mr. Varothai stated.

          Moreover, government assistance measures for low-income individuals, particularly the state welfare card project, continue to support consumer spending. The progress of public investment projects from the previous year also supports a positive outlook for private sector investment growth compared to the previous year.

          However, it is assessed that clarity regarding the elections will be another factor that helps circulate money in the economy through various subsequent activities.

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