The real estate market in 2025 can be described as severely stagnant, continuing from 2024, with the number of homes sold by registered companies decreasing by about 12% compared to the previous year. Similarly, the number of homes sold in 2024 also dropped by approximately 12% from 2023. This ongoing decline over two years is a result of developers' attempts to stimulate the market in 2023, which successfully pushed high-priced single-family and twin homes. Developers expected to achieve similar success in 2024 but were disappointed.

This situation is related to other economic variables, as shown in Figure 1. The purchase of homes and cars is clearly correlated and exhibits high volatility. These two variables are also linked to investment, which subsequently affects economic sales rates. However, the volatility of GDP and investment is significantly lower than that of the two aforementioned variables. This behavior suggests that the purchase of homes and cars is heavily dependent on economic conditions and income, and is significantly impacted. Conversely, a negative change in income can lead consumers to immediately halt purchases of homes and cars, with a severe impact. In layman's terms, homes and cars are non-essential items that can be cut out immediately. At the same time, improved income will prompt consumers to purchase these two items right away. In economic terms, it can be said that for Thais, permanent income is a function of very short-term income, which leads to the behavior illustrated in Figure 1.

Another noteworthy observation is that investment and GDP have only a minor impact on the sales of single-family homes and townhouses, and sometimes there is no correlation at all. Even more interesting is that in years when condominiums sell well, it correlates with the overall housing market. Specifically, it can be said that investment in launching condominium projects stimulates continued investment in the economy.

Therefore, if the government wants to stimulate investment in the economy, it should promote investment in condominium projects, which means easing lending conditions for condominium buyers as well.

The number of homes sold in 2025 is low due to fewer project launches compared to 2024, amounting to only about half. The sales rate of horizontal housing has also decreased below that of 2024, with only condominiums maintaining a similar sales rate. The missing projects are likely those where there is uncertainty about whether the sales rate will justify the project launch.

Looking at Figure 1, it can be seen that the state of investment and national income fluctuates cyclically. At the same time, the number of homes and cars sold also varies according to the same cycle. GDP and consumption in the Thai economy tend to grow steadily at a rate of 3% per year, with only investment being unpredictable and volatile due to political impacts. The political direction in Thailand also seems difficult to predict in 2026. However, the direction of the housing market should at least be positive in 2026, even if it may not be booming.