On August 1, 2025, President Trump announced retaliatory tariff measures against over 20 trading partners, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%.

  • Thailand's tariff was set at 19%, down from 36%, placing it on par with Indonesia and lower than several Asian countries such as Laos (40%) and India (25%).

  • Global GDP for 2025 is projected by the IMF at 3.0%, up from 2.8% in April, while U.S. GDP is expected to decrease from 1.8% to 1.7%.

Impact on the Thai Economy

  • KResearch has slightly revised its GDP forecast for Thailand in 2025 from 1.4% to 1.5% due to improved export trends.

  • Exports for the entire year of 2025 are expected to grow by 3.4% (up from the previous estimate of 1.5%), with a projected contraction of -7.4% in the second half, an improvement from the earlier forecast of -10.0%.

  • However, the tourism sector remains sluggish, with the number of foreign tourists for the year revised down from 34.5 million to 32.2 million, marking the first decline in five years, as Chinese tourists dropped by -34.1% in the first half of the year.

Consumption and Investment Sector

  • Private and public consumption continues to grow slowly, with expectations of only 2.0% and 1.5% growth for the year 2025, respectively.

  • Private investment is projected to contract by -0.5%, while public investment is expected to grow by 5.0%.

  • The consumer and retail confidence index is at its lowest level in 42 months due to weak economic conditions and high living costs.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

  • Thailand's inflation has been negative for three consecutive months as of June, pressured by falling prices of fresh produce and energy.

  • The Bank of Thailand is expected to reduce the policy interest rate at least once more in October, potentially continuing into the first half of 2026.